Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:32:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
64 0x648b…8c77 sports 66 markets active 1h ago coverage 135d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$162 (-4%) realized −$191 · open +$29
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate56%31W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$858now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$206
7 days+$208
14 days+$185
30 days+$137
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$75
sports 40% +$26
world 5% −$49
crypto 5% −$43
politics 2% +$22
tech 2% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-20.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +9.3% -1.1% 72% 59% -0.8%
≤30d 41 -4.9% -14.0% 61% 51% -4.6%
≤90d 41 -4.9% -14.0% 61% 51% -4.6%
all 55 -12.4% -20.7% 56% 44% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.7% 44% -13.0%
10% -28.3% 38% -21.4%
15% -35.2% 35% -29.0%
20% -41.6% 24% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -35% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$42 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$858
Realized−$191
Unrealized+$29
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses31 / 24
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions11
Markets (closed)55 / 66
History coverage135d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? No 72¢ 100¢ $108 $150 +$42 (+39%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 64¢ $148 $133 −$15 (-10%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Over 73¢ 100¢ $73 $100 +$27 (+36%)
Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 62¢ 63¢ $98 $100 +$2 (+2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 23¢ $77 $98 +$21 (+27%)
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 57¢ 40¢ $116 $82 −$34 (-29%)
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance Netherlands 58¢ 58¢ $58 $58 +$0 (+1%)
Will Ivory Coast reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 42¢ 36¢ $68 $57 −$11 (-15%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $35 $40 +$5 (+15%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $25 $20 −$4 (-17%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $22 $19 −$3 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $79 +$72 +92%
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $31 +$2 +5%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $56 +$44 +79%
South Africa vs. Canada: Canada O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 28 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $24 +$27 +109%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 28 $101 +$51 +50%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $62 +$39 +62%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $74 $0 +1%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $51 −$31 -61%
Panama vs. England: England O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 27 $73 +$28 +38%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $47 +$20 +42%
Will Australia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $31 +$1 +2%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 27 $29 +$21 +73%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $149 +$21 +14%
Spread: Belgium (-3.5) Jun 27 $90 −$89 -99%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $50 −$34 -68%
Spread: Senegal (-2.5) Jun 26 $60 +$40 +67%
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $48 −$45 -94%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $150 +$5 +3%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 26 $50 +$20 +41%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $38 −$18 -47%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 25 $59 −$58 -99%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $35 +$25 +70%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 25 $53 +$27 +52%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $219 +$56 +25%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $51 +$22 +43%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $44 −$43 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $101 +$55 +55%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $101 −$89 -88%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $56 +$27 +48%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 23 $25 +$16 +65%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 22 $112 +$22 +20%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $64 +$36 +57%
Will Uruguay reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $78 −$50 -64%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $35 −$35 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $91 +$49 +55%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $24 −$11 -46%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $14 −$14 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $13 −$13 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $25 −$25 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Mar 01 $51 −$50 -99%
U.S. strike on Somalia by February 28? Feb 28 $106 −$5 -5%
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 27 $98 −$98 -100%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 27, 2026? Feb 27 $83 +$66 +79%
Pakistan strikes Afghanistan by February 28, 2026? Feb 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Pakistan strikes Afghanistan by February 27, 2026? Feb 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Canada win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Oly Feb 24 $110 −$110 -100%
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? Feb 24 $50 −$17 -33%
Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2026-02-22? Feb 22 $125 −$115 -92%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Paraguay: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 73¢ $0 52m
Germany vs. Paraguay: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 73¢ $14 59m
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 72¢ $108 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 73¢ $8 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 73¢ $52 1h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance BUY Netherlands 58¢ $58 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 46¢ $24 4h
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 45¢ $32 5h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 55¢ $55 9h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 56¢ $56 29h
South Africa vs. Canada: Canada O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Over 43¢ $1 31h
South Africa vs. Canada: Canada O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Over 43¢ $17 32h
South Africa vs. Canada: Canada O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Over 43¢ $5 32h
South Africa vs. Canada: Canada O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Over 43¢ $3 33h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $24 44h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? SELL Yes 74¢ $74 45h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 73¢ $74 45h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 20¢ $20 45h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 66¢ $101 2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 61¢ $62 2d
Panama vs. England: England O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 72¢ $73 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 49¢ $51 2d
Will Australia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 43¢ $26 2d
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 70¢ $47 2d
Spread: Belgium (-3.5) BUY New Zealand 74¢ $90 2d
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 16¢ $16 2d
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 57¢ $29 2d
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 30¢ $21 2d
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 70¢ $106 2d
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $43 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $857.69 · official $853.97 (match) · 212 history records