Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T19:02:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
64 0x648a…25d9 crypto 370 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (1658 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,824 (-3%) realized −$1,822 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -55% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -65% what you keep after slip
Net edge-65%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate22%182W / 656L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$155per market
Trades / day1657.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$797
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (1658 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-59.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 838 -54.7% -59.0% 22% 18% -19.7%
≤30d 838 -54.7% -59.0% 22% 18% -19.7%
≤90d 838 -54.7% -59.0% 22% 18% -19.7%
all 838 -54.7% -59.0% 22% 18% -19.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1657.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -59.0% 18% -19.7%
10% ← realistic here -63.0% 14% -27.4%
15% -66.5% 11% -34.4%
20% -69.8% 9% -40.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -55% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -14% → late -95% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
8.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$77 vs −$32 · ×2.37 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$1,822
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses182 / 656
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)838 / 370
History coverage2d ⚠
Avg bet$155
Trades / day1657.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 838 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Up 40¢ 38¢ $27 $25 −$2 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 28 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 28 $0 +$1 +669%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 +300%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 +133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 28 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 28 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 28 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 28 $69 −$69 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 28 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 28 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 28 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 28 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 28 $206 −$206 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 28 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 28 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 28 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 28 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 28 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 28 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 28 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 28 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $13 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $8 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $0 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $0 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $0 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $0 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $0 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $4 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $0 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $0 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $3 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $0 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $3 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $0 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $0 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $0 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $0 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $17 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $57 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $3 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $85 22m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.74 · official $26.91 · 3500 history records