Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:18:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
64 0x648a…867a politics 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 91d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-0%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 31L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$439per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$19
14 days−$19
30 days−$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 34% −$9
other 30% −$5
world 14% −$2
sports 11% −$2
crypto 10% −$4
culture 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 17 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 28 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 31 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,229) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$1 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 31
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 31
History coverage91d
Avg bet$439
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 19 $100 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $41 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $26 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jun 17 $22 $0 -0%
Will Tommy Paul be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 17 $29 $0 -0%
Will Stefanos Tsitsipas be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 16 $1,276 −$2 -0%
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 16 $53 $0 -0%
Will Bridget Phillipson be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingd Jun 16 $1,329 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $1,306 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $1,280 −$2 -0%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 15 $55 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $1,293 −$4 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $1,208 −$2 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $1,421 −$3 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $43 $0 -0%
Will Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 14 $1,331 −$1 -0%
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $1,229 −$2 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? Apr 22 $217 $0 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $218 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 17 $211 $0 -0%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian president Apr 16 $14 $0 -3%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 16 $214 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 11 $18 −$1 -5%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Electio Mar 29 $173 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $0.40 in March? Mar 28 $59 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 25 $130 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Flyers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 25 $74 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Mar 25 $24 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 20 $105 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Mar 20 $22 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Mar 20 $92 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $99 1h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $80 1h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $41 1h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $20 1h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $14 1h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $20 1h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $21 2h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $12 2h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $26 2h
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem SELL No 100¢ $22 2d
Will Tommy Paul be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 99¢ $19 2d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem BUY No 100¢ $22 2d
Will Tommy Paul be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 99¢ $10 2d
Will Tommy Paul be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $29 2d
Will Stefanos Tsitsipas be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $1,274 3d
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL No 100¢ $53 3d
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 100¢ $11 3d
Will Stefanos Tsitsipas be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $1,250 3d
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 100¢ $18 3d
Will Bridget Phillipson be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingd SELL No 100¢ $1,328 3d
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 100¢ $24 3d
Will Bridget Phillipson be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingd BUY No 100¢ $1,306 3d
Will Stefanos Tsitsipas be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $26 3d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,019 3d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $285 3d
Will Bridget Phillipson be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingd BUY No 100¢ $23 3d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,306 3d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,278 4d
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $55 4d
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $29 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 93 history records