Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:03:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5

score

64 0x6483…a1e0 other 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$9 (+5%) realized −$1 · open +$10

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip

Net edge-12%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate0%0W / 1L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$43per market

Trades / day0.7pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$155now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 9d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-12.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	-2.7%	-12.0%	0%	0%	-12.0%
≤30d	1	-2.7%	-12.0%	0%	0%	-12.0%
≤90d	1	-2.7%	-12.0%	0%	0%	-12.0%
all	1	-2.7%	-12.0%	0%	0%	-12.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.7 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-12.0%	0%	-12.0%
10%	-20.4%	0%	-20.4%
15%	-28.1%	0%	-28.1%
20%	-35.1%	0%	-35.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top —% · top 2 —% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -3% too few recent

Fragile wins

—% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

— vs −$1 no data

Profit factor

×0.0 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage

Net worth$155

Realized−$1

Unrealized+$10

Win rate (resolved)0%

Wins / losses0 / 1

Open positions3

Markets (closed)1 / 4

History coverage9d

Avg bet$43

Trades / day0.7

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 1 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	10¢	11¢	$97	$107	+$10 (+11%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	45¢	44¢	$25	$24	−$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26?	Yes	23¢	22¢	$24	$23	−$1 (-2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 16	$25	−$1	-3%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	23¢	$24	1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	76¢	$24	1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	45¢	$25	2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	77¢	$25	2h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	10¢	$50	8d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	10¢	$50	8d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $154.75 · official $154.75 (match) · 14 history records