Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:50:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
64 0x6482…dd9b crypto 5 markets active 3h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$101 (-46%) realized −$101 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%1W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day9.0pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 77% −$117
other 23% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-25.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -17.2% -25.0% 20% 20% -53.8%
≤30d 5 -17.2% -25.0% 20% 20% -53.8%
≤90d 5 -17.2% -25.0% 20% 20% -53.8%
all 5 -17.2% -25.0% 20% 20% -53.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.0% 20% -53.8%
10% -32.2% 20% -58.2%
15% -38.8% 20% -62.3%
20% -44.8% 0% -66.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -49% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -49% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$30 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$101
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses1 / 4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)5 / 5
History coverage1d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 5 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 17 $112 −$105 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 16 $51 −$12 -24%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 −$1 -4%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $30 +$14 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Down 53¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 0¢ $86 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $26 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 64¢ $19 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $25 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 4h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $30 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 11 history records