Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T06:51:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

64
0x6482…38ff
crypto · 36 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$9 -6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$9 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$5
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses16 / 16
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)32 / 36
History coverage71d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%
Chart Positions 4 History 32 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$10
14 days+$10
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Down 22¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Up 34¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Down 29¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Down 38¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Down 59¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Down 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Up 17¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Up 39¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Down 35¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Down 35¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 $0 -4%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 13 $6 +$10 +160%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$3 +255%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Apr 04 $10 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Apr 04 $15 +$5 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Apr 04 $4 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Apr 04 $2 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Apr 04 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Apr 03 $13 −$12 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Apr 03 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Apr 03 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Apr 03 $3 $0 +11%
Solana Up or Down - April 3, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Apr 03 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Apr 03 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Apr 03 $11 +$7 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Apr 03 $4 +$3 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Apr 03 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Apr 03 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Apr 03 $1 −$1 -95%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 3, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Apr 03 $1 $0 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Apr 03 $11 −$11 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Apr 03 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Apr 03 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Apr 03 $6 +$3 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Apr 03 $1 +$1 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Apr 03 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Apr 03 $3 +$5 +154%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Apr 03 $1 $0 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 87% −$7
other 11% −$1
sports 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 49m
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 49m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 59m
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 25¢ $1 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 58¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET SELL Down 28¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 1h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 57¢ $5 1h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 4h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 5h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 5h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 17h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $5 17h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $10 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $4 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET SELL Down 73¢ $3 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET SELL Down 72¢ $5 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET SELL Down 61¢ $9 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $15 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $4 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $3 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 70d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +44.8% +31.0% 43% 43% +32.4%
≤30d 7 +44.8% +31.0% 43% 43% +32.4%
≤90d 32 -3.8% -13.0% 50% 47% -15.6%
all 32 -3.8% -13.0% 50% 47% -15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 47% -15.6%
10% -21.3% 41% -23.7%
15% -28.9% 31% -31.1%
20% -35.9% 25% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.89 · official $4.89 (match) · 83 history records