Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T17:00:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

64
0x6482…34b0
sports · 74 markets active 1h ago
1.5score
+$93 +10%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$94 · open −$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$21
Realized+$94
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses26 / 42
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions5
Markets (closed)68 / 74
History coverage93d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit84%
Chart Positions 5 History 68 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$73
14 days+$87
30 days+$92
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 18¢ 28¢ $8 $13 +$5 (+58%)
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-17%)
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BetBoom Team 10¢ 6¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-45%)
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+14%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 9z 9¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Up 16¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BetBoom Team 11¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Yes 40¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 - Map 2 Winner MIBR 41¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs magic 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 3 - 2 Arsenal FC? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 TheMongolz 11¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Down 16¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner FUT Esports 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 B8 27¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $54 +$12 +23%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $10 +$23 +227%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $6 −$1 -21%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $15 +$32 +209%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $20 +$16 +78%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $60 −$4 -7%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $51 −$41 -81%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $10 +$3 +30%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $5 +$14 +270%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $44 +$26 +59%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $10 +$5 +46%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 06 $20 +$11 +56%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $20 −$2 -11%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 30 $20 +$18 +88%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 3 - 2 Arsenal FC? May 30 $1 −$1 -97%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? May 28 $50 +$13 +25%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET May 26 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on May 25? May 25 $5 −$4 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET May 24 $5 −$2 -41%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? May 23 $20 +$9 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET May 18 $5 −$5 -94%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 17 $11 −$8 -69%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Play May 16 $5 −$2 -44%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 16 $25 +$7 +28%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 14 $42 +$7 +17%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Apr 19 $30 −$5 -17%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Bigetron by Vitality vs Natus Vincere (BO3) Apr 12 $73 −$2 -2%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 11 $30 −$16 -54%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 08 $10 −$4 -36%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 07 $30 +$23 +76%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 07 $5 −$2 -48%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Apr 01 $32 +$7 +23%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Mar 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will another country strike Iran by March 31? Mar 27 $5 −$2 -48%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Mar 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will MrBeast hit 477 Million subscribers by March 31? Mar 26 $1 −$1 -78%
Will Team Spirit win Blast Open Rotterdam 2026? Mar 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Vitality (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Gr Mar 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31? Mar 22 $12 +$3 +26%
Will UK strike Iran by March 31? Mar 22 $5 +$2 +40%
Will Germany strike Iran by March 31? Mar 21 $2 −$1 -43%
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31? Mar 21 $5 −$2 -35%
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 20, 2026? Mar 20 $20 +$1 +3%
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 21, 2026? Mar 20 $30 +$4 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 58% +$84
world 28% +$45
other 12% −$20
crypto 1% −$9
culture 1% −$3
weather 1% −$6
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 9¢ $5 39m
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY BetBoom Team 10¢ $5 40m
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta SELL BetBoom Team 25¢ $20 1h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY BetBoom Team 12¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY TheMongolz 11¢ $3 29h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17 BUY 5¢ $10 31h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL TheMongolz 51¢ $64 31h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY TheMongolz 39¢ $51 31h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 84¢ $33 2d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 25¢ $10 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY B8 27¢ $5 3d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 29¢ $4 3d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 11¢ $5 3d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 2¢ $0 3d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 5¢ $1 3d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 SELL B8 92¢ $47 4d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY B8 24¢ $5 4d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY B8 33¢ $10 4d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 99¢ $36 6d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 55¢ $20 6d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 - Map 2 Winner SELL MIBR 26¢ $6 6d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 - Map 2 Winner BUY MIBR 41¢ $10 6d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 - Map 2 Winner SELL B8 60¢ $36 6d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 - Map 2 Winner BUY B8 82¢ $50 6d
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 SELL Astralis 3¢ $10 6d
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY Astralis 15¢ $51 6d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 SELL B8 42¢ $13 6d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY B8 31¢ $10 6d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 3¢ $1 6d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL G2 50¢ $19 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +72.2% +55.8% 58% 58% +31.4%
≤30d 29 +7.9% -2.4% 45% 45% +15.4%
≤90d 61 -17.0% -24.9% 36% 34% +1.5%
all 68 -1.8% -11.2% 38% 37% +2.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 37% +2.8%
10% -19.7% 34% -7.0%
15% -27.4% 25% -16.0%
20% -34.5% 19% -24.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.45 · official $20.96 (match) · 157 history records