Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:48:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
64 0x6481…befb other 138 markets active 2h ago coverage 101d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$44 (-0%) realized −$44 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate12%16W / 121L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$154per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$15
14 days−$25
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 30% −$22
sports 22% −$14
politics 20% −$14
crypto 13% +$4
economics 4% −$1
culture 4% −$6
finance 3% −$3
world 2% −$2
tech 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -0.9% -10.3% 4% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 69 -0.7% -10.2% 6% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 119 -0.5% -10.0% 8% 0% -9.8%
all 137 -0.5% -10.0% 12% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 73% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$63
Realized−$44
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses16 / 121
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)137 / 138
History coverage101d
Avg bet$154
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 137 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? No 98¢ 98¢ $63 $63 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 19 $57 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? Jun 18 $51 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 18 $58 −$1 -2%
Will Ivory Coast reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $14 $0 -3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $25 $0 -1%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $199 −$1 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $98 −$1 -1%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 17 $99 −$2 -2%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $199 −$1 -1%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 16 $58 −$1 -2%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $103 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? Jun 15 $10 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 15 $104 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 15 $118 −$1 -1%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $63 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 14 $65 −$1 -2%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 14 $195 −$2 -1%
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $52 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $51 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 13 $66 −$1 -1%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 12 $66 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $50 $0 -0%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 12 $50 −$1 -1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T? Jun 12 $63 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $42 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $59 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 11 $45 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $97 −$1 -1%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $377 $0 -0%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $55 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 10 $57 $0 -0%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 09 $54 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $52 −$1 -2%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $46 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $49 −$1 -2%
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $167 −$3 -2%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $110 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 06 $63 −$1 -2%
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 06 $87 $0 -1%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $114 $0 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $49 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $184 $0 -0%
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 04 $54 −$1 -3%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Jun 04 $54 $0 -0%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 04 $54 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Jun 03 $48 −$1 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 03 $54 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $45 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $109 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 02 $258 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $63 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 92¢ $57 2h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $57 7h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? SELL No 98¢ $51 8h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? BUY No 98¢ $51 14h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $56 14h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $58 20h
Will Ivory Coast reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $13 21h
Will Ivory Coast reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $14 28h
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $25 28h
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $25 35h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $57 35h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $57 40h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $44 41h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $44 2d
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 88¢ $39 2d
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 91¢ $40 2d
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 94¢ $16 2d
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 94¢ $17 2d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 94¢ $57 2d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 96¢ $58 2d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $55 2d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $55 3d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $48 3d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $48 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? SELL No 95¢ $10 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? BUY No 95¢ $10 3d
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 SELL No 98¢ $47 3d
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 BUY No 98¢ $47 3d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 95¢ $55 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.88 · official $62.88 (match) · 490 history records