Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:30:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
64 0x6481…02a3 other 133 markets active 2h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$113 (-0%) realized −$113 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate8%10W / 122L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$207per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$15
politics 34% −$11
sports 7% −$88
economics 4% −$1
tech 2% −$1
crypto 2% −$1
world 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 17 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 120 -4.0% -13.1% 5% 2% -9.9%
all 132 -3.5% -12.7% 8% 5% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 5% -9.9%
10% -21.0% 4% -18.5%
15% -28.7% 4% -26.4%
20% -35.7% 4% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -7% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$2 · ×5.05 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$113
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses10 / 122
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)132 / 133
History coverage116d
Avg bet$207
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 132 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 21 $262 $0 -0%
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 20 $29 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $188 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $184 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $21 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $25 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $589 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $461 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $26 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $184 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $346 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $361 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $580 −$1 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $160 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $303 −$1 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 22 $159 $0 -0%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 22 $186 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $153 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $191 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 20 $180 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 17 $336 −$1 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 16 $155 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $203 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $707 −$1 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 13 $147 $0 +0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 12 $601 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $181 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $163 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $148 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $185 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio May 07 $160 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $156 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $180 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $162 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $169 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $536 −$1 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $350 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $364 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $179 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $184 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 02 $173 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 02 $172 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 02 $206 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $186 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $204 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $150 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 01 $162 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 30 $147 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 30 $542 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $191 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $32 1h
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $21 1h
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $21 5h
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $29 27h
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $29 33h
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $27 39h
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $27 42h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $20 45h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $20 7d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $17 9d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $17 10d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $21 10d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $21 11d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $25 12d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $25 12d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $27 12d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $27 15d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $25 18d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $25 20d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $26 20d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $26 21d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $19 21d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $19 21d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $190 21d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $190 24d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $198 25d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $198 26d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $190 26d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $190 27d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $156 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.98 · official $31.98 (match) · 400 history records