Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:45:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
64 0x647e…2efb sports 164 markets active 1h ago coverage 51d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$202 (+4%) realized +$192 · open +$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate62%94W / 58L
Drawdown92%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$240now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$83
7 days+$31
14 days−$172
30 days−$372
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% +$183
crypto 32% −$72
sports 18% +$56
politics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 +7.1% -3.1% 70% 59% -7.1%
≤30d 72 +0.0% -9.5% 64% 58% -25.4%
≤90d 152 +3.1% -6.7% 62% 58% -6.5%
all 152 +3.1% -6.7% 62% 58% -6.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.7% 58% -6.5%
10% -15.7% 51% -15.5%
15% -23.8% 45% -23.6%
20% -31.3% 36% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$24 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$240
Realized+$192
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses94 / 58
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions12
Markets (closed)152 / 164
History coverage51d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 152 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 72¢ 81¢ $50 $56 +$6 (+13%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 60¢ 62¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+3%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 47¢ 48¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 60¢ 57¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 88¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+25%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 62¢ 64¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 74¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 50 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $150 +$22 +15%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $10 +$6 +62%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20 +$21 +105%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 19 $91 +$15 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 19 $47 +$43 +93%
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 18 $52 −$12 -24%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $8 +$3 +40%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$15 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +46%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 +$22 +72%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 17 $10 −$3 -26%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 17 $10 +$1 +7%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $46 −$46 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $18 +$7 +40%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $61 +$29 +47%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $29 +$7 +24%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$9 +44%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $117 −$116 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$46 +90%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $40 +$4 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $35 +$7 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 14 $32 +$3 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $25 +$8 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$3 +18%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $10 +$8 +79%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $72 −$71 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +6%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $5 −$4 -98%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $50 +$22 +44%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 +$21 +105%
Will France win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 08 $146 −$145 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 08 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $10 +$6 +57%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $10 +$6 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 06 $101 +$24 +24%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $10 +$2 +24%
Will Peru win on 2026-06-05? Jun 06 $10 +$4 +40%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros Jun 05 $10 +$10 +97%
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 05 $10 +$7 +73%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 04 $20 +$5 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 78¢ $40 41m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $10 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $173 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 98¢ $120 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $10 22h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 22h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 22h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 22h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $91 22h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $47 22h
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $39 23h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 23h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 49¢ $10 23h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 58¢ $10 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $2 2d
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 2d
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 2d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 73¢ $10 2d
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $52 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $8 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 2d
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians SELL Cleveland Guardians 39¢ $8 2d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Atlanta Braves 53¢ $11 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $26 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $18 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $239.59 · official $239.60 (match) · 309 history records