Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T01:40:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
64 0x6476…eeba other 25 markets active 2h ago coverage 69d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$2,273 (+5%) realized +$1,963 · open +$310
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate86%19W / 3L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$1,992per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$6,197now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$345
7 days−$218
14 days−$137
30 days+$738
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% +$848
world 32% −$48
finance 17% +$1,021
tech 11% +$301
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.5% -9.1% 75% 0% -12.6%
≤30d 8 +3.8% -6.1% 88% 12% -5.3%
≤90d 22 +0.1% -9.5% 86% 14% -5.7%
all 22 +0.1% -9.5% 86% 14% -5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 14% -5.7%
10% -18.1% 0% -14.7%
15% -26.0% 0% -22.9%
20% -33.3% 0% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$2,773) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$132 vs −$235 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.57 per $1 lost it wins $3.57
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$6,197
Realized+$1,963
Unrealized+$310
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses19 / 3
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)22 / 25
History coverage69d
Avg bet$1,992
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 90¢ $3,855 $3,858 +$2 (+0%)
Will Algeria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 98¢ $1,232 $1,379 +$147 (+12%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 80¢ 96¢ $800 $960 +$161 (+20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June? Jun 18 $1,424 +$94 +7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 18 $2,773 −$438 -16%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $1,179 +$92 +8%
Will SpaceX raise between $70B and $80B in its IPO? Jun 12 $1,007 +$35 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 09 $2,571 +$80 +3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? Jun 01 $1,245 +$66 +5%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? May 29 $461 +$19 +4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? May 27 $4,983 +$790 +16%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 07 $411 +$53 +13%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$800M one day after launch? May 01 $3,462 +$232 +7%
Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026? Apr 30 $1,829 +$170 +9%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 27 $1,391 +$13 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 25 $3,744 +$143 +4%
USD.AI FDV above $150M one day after launch? Apr 23 $708 +$47 +7%
USD.AI FDV above $200M one day after launch? Apr 23 $2,613 +$376 +14%
Sentio FDV above $50M one day after launch? Apr 17 $3,306 −$13 -0%
Sentio FDV above $20M one day after launch? Apr 16 $1,091 +$7 +1%
Sentio FDV above $100M one day after launch? Apr 16 $258 −$253 -98%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 15, 2026? Apr 16 $318 +$4 +1%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 15 $4,795 +$132 +3%
Genius FDV above $300M one day after launch? Apr 14 $1,551 +$133 +9%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 12, 2026? Apr 12 $1,531 +$30 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 90¢ $1,517 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June? SELL No 99¢ $1,517 1h
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 90¢ $2,369 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 77¢ $2,335 23h
Will Algeria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 88¢ $177 47h
Will Algeria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 88¢ $177 47h
Will Algeria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 88¢ $883 47h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY Yes 92¢ $1,179 6d
Will SpaceX raise between $70B and $80B in its IPO? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,042 6d
Will SpaceX raise between $70B and $80B in its IPO? BUY Yes 95¢ $20 8d
Will SpaceX raise between $70B and $80B in its IPO? BUY Yes 95¢ $67 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 91¢ $1,507 8d
Will SpaceX raise between $70B and $80B in its IPO? BUY Yes 95¢ $920 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL No 99¢ $2,651 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 91¢ $1,265 10d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $422 12d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $361 12d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $57 12d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 83¢ $416 13d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 97¢ $1,246 14d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 96¢ $385 14d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June? BUY No 92¢ $787 17d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June? BUY No 92¢ $100 17d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June? BUY No 92¢ $32 17d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? SELL No 89¢ $1,311 17d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June? BUY No 93¢ $504 18d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 94¢ $940 18d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? BUY No 84¢ $1,245 19d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $2,015 21d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? SELL No 100¢ $4,247 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,197.05 · official $6,197.05 (match) · 184 history records