Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T07:11:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

64
0x6474…bd11
sports · 61 markets active 1h ago
2.5score
+$530 +18%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$530 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✓ COPY-WORTHY sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized+$530
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses30 / 30
Est. fees paid−$37
Open positions1
Markets (closed)60 / 61
History coverage12d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day15.7
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit97%
Chart Positions 1 History 60 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$248
7 days+$492
14 days+$530
30 days+$530
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on June 13? Yes 15¢ 3¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-81%)
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Seattle Mariners 51¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres San Diego Padres 56¢ 0¢ $52 $0 −$52 (-100%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Arizona Diamondbacks 45¢ 0¢ $77 $0 −$77 (-100%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 Under 53¢ 0¢ $51 $0 −$51 (-100%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Milwaukee Brewers 52¢ 0¢ $76 $0 −$76 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 11? Yes 56¢ 0¢ $56 $0 −$56 (-100%)
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Kansas City Royals 52¢ 0¢ $75 $0 −$75 (-100%)
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Arizona Diamondbacks 59¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 Under 50¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Philadelphia Phillies 51¢ 0¢ $76 $0 −$76 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 12? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants San Francisco Giants 58¢ 0¢ $96 $0 −$96 (-100%)
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers Cleveland Guardians 54¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres San Diego Padres 50¢ 0¢ $76 $0 −$76 (-100%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5 Under 53¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 Over 53¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Detroit Tigers 46¢ 0¢ $33 $0 −$33 (-100%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5 Over 45¢ 0¢ $51 $0 −$51 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 10? Yes 68¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 8? Yes 29¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $81 +$229 +283%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $43 +$98 +226%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $76 −$75 -99%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $3 +$3 +101%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 11 $51 +$44 +86%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $51 −$11 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $57 −$56 -98%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $17 +$17 +97%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $1 +$1 +65%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $76 +$74 +97%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $15 −$15 -99%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $28 +$34 +124%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $70 +$63 +90%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 10? Jun 10 $11 −$11 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5 Jun 10 $76 +$71 +93%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $42 +$35 +83%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $78 −$76 -99%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 09 $78 −$77 -98%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 09 $78 −$76 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 9? Jun 09 $3 +$16 +523%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 09 $77 +$56 +73%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 09 $97 −$96 -99%
Reya FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jun 09 $4 $0 -1%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 Jun 09 $76 +$82 +108%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5 Jun 09 $76 +$89 +116%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 Jun 09 $29 +$24 +83%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 9? Jun 08 $30 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on June 8? Jun 08 $8 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 9? Jun 08 $30 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 8? Jun 08 $30 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 8? Jun 08 $52 −$36 -70%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5 Jun 08 $51 +$45 +90%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 Jun 08 $76 −$76 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 08 $51 +$44 +86%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 Jun 08 $52 +$54 +104%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 08 $101 +$77 +76%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 Jun 07 $52 −$51 -99%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres Jun 07 $102 −$76 -75%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5 Jun 07 $51 +$46 +90%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 Jun 07 $51 +$56 +109%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres Jun 07 $51 +$56 +109%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 Jun 07 $51 −$50 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 07 $42 +$54 +129%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 Jun 07 $51 +$47 +93%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 Jun 06 $51 −$50 -99%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 06 $51 −$50 -99%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 06 $33 −$33 -98%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5 Jun 06 $52 +$64 +124%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 06 $51 +$30 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 86% +$307
weather 14% +$224
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on June 13? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 12? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 23h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 12? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 24h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 12? SELL Yes 95¢ $310 26h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 12? BUY Yes 18¢ $8 27h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 12? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 27h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 12? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 27h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 12? BUY Yes 19¢ $6 27h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 12? BUY Yes 21¢ $8 27h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 12? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 28h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 12? BUY Yes 26¢ $8 28h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 12? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 28h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 12? BUY Yes 27¢ $25 28h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 12? BUY Yes 27¢ $6 28h
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 52¢ $76 38h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 11? SELL No 64¢ $39 2d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 11? BUY Yes 58¢ $6 2d
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 49¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 11? BUY No 79¢ $51 2d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 11? BUY Yes 60¢ $6 2d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 11? BUY Yes 35¢ $12 2d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 11? BUY Yes 29¢ $13 2d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 11? BUY Yes 22¢ $13 2d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 11? BUY Yes 56¢ $51 2d
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 53¢ $51 2d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Seattle Mariners 51¢ $8 2d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 50¢ $17 2d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Seattle Mariners 51¢ $8 2d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 60¢ $1 2d
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 50¢ $76 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 +29.4% +17.0% 52% 52% +10.6%
≤30d 60 +23.0% +11.3% 50% 50% +8.1%
≤90d 60 +23.0% +11.3% 50% 50% +8.1%
all 60 +23.0% +11.3% 50% 50% +8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover15.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +11.3% 50% +8.1%
10% +0.6% 50% -2.2%
15% -9.1% 50% -11.7%
20% -18.0% 50% -20.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.19 · official $0.19 (match) · 223 history records