Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:16:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
64 0x6472…dcb1 world 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 398d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$8 (+1%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +69% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +53% what you keep after slip
Net edge+53%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate55%16W / 13L
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% +$2
other 19% +$2
politics 14% +$2
finance 7% +$3
crypto 3% $0
economics 2% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)+53.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 11 -0.8% -10.3% 55% 0% -8.5%
≤90d 11 -0.8% -10.3% 55% 0% -8.5%
all 29 +69.1% +53.0% 55% 3% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +53.0% 3% -8.6%
10% +38.3% 3% -17.3%
15% +25.0% 3% -25.3%
20% +12.7% 3% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +69% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +144% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×3.47 per $1 lost it wins $3.47
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

398d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses16 / 13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage398d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $35 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 26 $37 +$2 +6%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 26 $48 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $55 +$3 +6%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 25 $88 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 25 $35 −$1 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $42 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 24 $38 +$2 +4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $40 $0 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 23 $9 −$2 -25%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 21 $9 $0 +0%
US military action against Iran by Thursday? Jun 21 $2 $0 +3%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 National League Championship? Jun 05 $11 $0 +0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 World Series? Jun 05 $17 $0 +0%
Will Larry Ellison buy TikTok before July? Jun 04 $11 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jun 03 $17 $0 -0%
Will Virgil Alexandru Zidaru be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 02 $18 $0 +2%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 02 $9 $0 +0%
Will the candidate from the Democratic Party (DPK) win the South Korea Jun 02 $19 $0 +0%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 01 $8 $0 -2%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2025 World Series? May 31 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? May 30 $27 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? May 25 $25 $0 +2%
Will Trump meet with Putin in Saudi Arabia before June? May 23 $26 $0 +0%
Will Pierre Gasly finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? May 23 $26 $0 -0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 May 22 $4 +$1 +28%
Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the May 22 $21 $0 +0%
Will Pedro Nuno Santos be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after th May 22 $23 +$2 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $35 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $35 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $0 21d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $0 21d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $2 21d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $21 21d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $16 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $20 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $17 22d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $48 22d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $48 22d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $48 22d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $46 22d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $46 23d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $46 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 29¢ $15 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 29¢ $19 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 30¢ $35 23d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 66¢ $43 23d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 65¢ $42 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 49¢ $33 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 49¢ $7 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 47¢ $38 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 93¢ $14 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 89¢ $27 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 89¢ $17 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 89¢ $23 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes 8¢ $7 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY Yes 10¢ $9 24d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $42 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 102 history records