Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:53:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
64 0x6470…8fb9 other 76 markets active 1h ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$8 (+2%) realized +$7 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate85%33W / 6L
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 35% +$3
politics 26% +$2
other 19% +$1
finance 15% +$4
world 4% −$2
sports 1% $0
tech 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +8.7% -1.7% 100% 0% -1.7%
≤30d 10 -7.0% -15.8% 90% 0% -15.1%
≤90d 34 +2.7% -7.0% 91% 26% -7.2%
all 39 -3.0% -12.2% 85% 28% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 28% -7.8%
10% -20.6% 15% -16.6%
15% -28.3% 10% -24.7%
20% -35.3% 8% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.65 per $1 lost it wins $1.65
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses33 / 6
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions37
Markets (closed)39 / 76
History coverage104d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 37 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Seattle Seahawks visit the White House in 2026? No 24¢ 66¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+173%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 92¢ 92¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 70¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+39%)
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 15? No 78¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+28%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 95¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 92¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by June 30? No 92¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 92¢ 95¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? Yes 84¢ 88¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 87¢ 90¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Hyperliquid dip to $12 by December 31, 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Revolut IPO before 2027? No 93¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 93¢ 93¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? Yes 95¢ 95¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 96¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will inflation reach more than 10% in 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 96¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 84¢ 83¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? No 93¢ 92¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $1 $0 +9%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 55 and 56 million views on day 4 Jun 03 $1 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 02 $1 $0 +2%
Will Czechia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? Jun 02 $1 $0 +3%
Will Arthur Fils win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 02 $1 $0 +4%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 02 $1 $0 +4%
Iran leadership change by May 31? Jun 02 $1 $0 +4%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 02 $2 $0 +2%
Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027? Jun 02 $1 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 09 $1 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET May 09 $1 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET May 09 $1 $0 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET May 09 $1 $0 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET May 09 $6 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET May 09 $6 +$1 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET May 09 $6 +$1 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET May 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 8? May 09 $1 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET May 08 $1 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET May 08 $2 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET May 07 $1 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET May 07 $2 $0 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET May 07 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET May 07 $1 $0 +38%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? May 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa May 06 $1 $0 +32%
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? May 06 $1 +$1 +96%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in March? May 06 $5 +$3 +59%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March? May 06 $10 +$2 +25%
Will Backpack launch a token by March 31? May 06 $50 +$1 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? May 06 $50 +$2 +4%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in March? May 06 $100 +$2 +2%
Trump out as President by March 31? May 06 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Mar 13 $1 +$1 +74%
Will Trump say "NATO" during meetings with Chancellor Merz? Mar 13 $1 $0 +16%
Will Opinion launch a token on March 5? Mar 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Mar 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch? Mar 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $1 1h
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $1 1h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 96¢ $1 1h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 74¢ $1 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $1 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $1 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $1 1h
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $1 1h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 85¢ $1 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 89¢ $1 1h
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY Yes 83¢ $1 1h
Will Hyperliquid dip to $12 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $1 4d
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? BUY Yes 95¢ $1 4d
Will inflation reach more than 10% in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $1 4d
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut BUY Yes 92¢ $1 4d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? BUY No 93¢ $1 4d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $1 4d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 95¢ $1 4d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $1 4d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 55 and 56 million views on day 4 BUY No 99¢ $1 11d
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $1 11d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY No 87¢ $1 11d
Variational FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 98¢ $1 11d
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 98¢ $1 11d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $1 11d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY No 97¢ $1 11d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $1 11d
Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $1 12d
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $1 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.15 · official $42.16 (match) · 114 history records