Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T11:51:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

64
0x6470…aac7
sports · 298 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$1,123 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,140 · open −$33
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$345
Realized−$1,140
Unrealized−$33
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses165 / 131
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)296 / 298
History coverage257d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%
Chart Positions 2 History 296 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$56
7 days+$56
14 days−$175
30 days−$330
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $171 +$44 +26%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $50 +$12 +24%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 02 $122 −$122 -99%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 02 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $59 −$59 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 17 $155 −$155 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 01 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 01 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 29 $152 −$152 -100%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Apr 19 $38 +$8 +21%
UFC Fight Night: Daria Zhelezniakova vs. Melissa Croden (Women's Banta Apr 19 $26 +$21 +79%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 18 $232 −$232 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Apr 17 $343 −$343 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 17 $100 +$43 +43%
Military action against Iran continues through March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $37 −$37 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? Apr 01 $124 −$124 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Apr 01 $119 −$37 -31%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 31 $363 $0 -0%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 31? Mar 31 $82 +$5 +6%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 31? Mar 31 $74 +$19 +26%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 30? Mar 30 $120 +$39 +32%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 23? Mar 24 $300 −$123 -41%
Will another country strike Iran by March 31? Mar 22 $225 −$47 -21%
Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026? Mar 22 $50 +$39 +78%
High Point Panthers vs. Arkansas Razorbacks Mar 22 $113 +$15 +13%
TCU Horned Frogs vs. Duke Blue Devils Mar 22 $19 +$3 +15%
Miami Open: Amanda Anisimova vs Yulia Starodubtseva Mar 22 $30 +$6 +19%
Miami Open: Mirra Andreeva vs Marie Bouzkova Mar 22 $25 +$8 +32%
Louisville Cardinals vs. Michigan State Spartans Mar 22 $35 +$9 +26%
Set Handicap: Pegula (-1.5) vs Jones (+1.5) Mar 21 $36 −$14 -40%
Miami Open: Francesca Jones vs Jessica Pegula Mar 21 $83 +$4 +5%
Will Israel or the US target Fordow nuclear facility? Mar 21 $75 +$17 +22%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 20? Mar 21 $39 +$38 +100%
Miami Open: Elena Rybakina vs Yulia Putintseva Mar 21 $77 +$6 +7%
Will Israel strike ≥4 countries in March 2026? Mar 20 $55 −$29 -52%
Miami Open: Mirra Andreeva vs McCartney Kessler Mar 20 $104 +$49 +47%
Miami Open: Magda Linette vs Iga Swiatek Mar 20 $56 −$56 -100%
McNeese State Cowboys vs. Vanderbilt Commodores Mar 20 $88 +$15 +17%
Miami Open: Alexandra Eala vs Laura Siegemund Mar 19 $35 +$21 +59%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th? Mar 19 $46 −$46 -100%
Fight to Go the Distance? Mar 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Mar 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Femke Kok (NED) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Spee Mar 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Xandra Velzeboer (NED) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 202 Mar 19 $16 −$16 -100%
UFC 326: Cody Garbrandt vs. Xiao Long (Bantamweight, Prelims) Mar 19 $20 −$20 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 2? Mar 19 $185 −$19 -10%
Will Jacqueline Pfeifer (GER) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2 Mar 19 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Chloe Kim (USA) win the gold medal for Snowboard Halfpipe - Women Mar 19 $26 −$26 -100%
Antalya 3: Polina Kudermetova vs Moyuka Uchijima Mar 19 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Ragne Wiklund (NOR) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Mar 19 $25 −$25 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 37% −$199
world 29% −$908
other 13% −$12
finance 13% −$16
economics 4% −$33
tech 2% −$73
politics 2% +$52
culture 0% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 42¢ $215 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 64¢ $215 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 38¢ $63 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 73¢ $63 1h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 12d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? BUY Yes 19¢ $50 12d
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 28¢ $50 12d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 59¢ $50 13d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 32¢ $50 13d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 18¢ $59 13d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $171 27d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $55 27d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $100 33d
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? BUY Yes 33¢ $122 36d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 29¢ $100 44d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 8¢ $51 44d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 23¢ $152 45d
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Over 82¢ $38 57d
UFC Fight Night: Daria Zhelezniakova vs. Melissa Croden (Women's Banta BUY Melissa Croden 55¢ $26 57d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? BUY Yes 46¢ $143 58d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? SELL Yes 92¢ $143 58d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? SELL No 99¢ $86 74d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 31? SELL Up 100¢ $87 74d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 31? BUY Up 94¢ $82 74d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 31? SELL Up 100¢ $82 74d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? BUY No 97¢ $84 75d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 31? BUY Up 67¢ $55 75d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 31? SELL Down 34¢ $11 75d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 31? BUY Down 58¢ $19 75d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? SELL No 95¢ $232 75d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +24.7% +12.8% 100% 100% +13.2%
≤30d 6 -58.3% -62.3% 33% 33% -58.6%
≤90d 59 -37.2% -43.1% 41% 32% -39.5%
all 296 -5.5% -14.5% 56% 42% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 42% -14.4%
10% -22.7% 32% -22.6%
15% -30.2% 20% -30.1%
20% -37.0% 13% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $345.12 · official $345.20 (match) · 759 history records