Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:01:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

64
0x646a…496c
other · 37 markets active 1h ago
1.5score
+$13 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$13 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized+$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses20 / 16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 37
History coverage465d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit65%
Chart Positions 1 History 36 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026? Yes 59¢ 69¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $55 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 10 $51 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 10 $3 $0 +3%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $4 $0 +4%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $16 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 08 $52 $0 -1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 08 $43 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 07 $40 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $54 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $3 $0 +3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $52 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $33 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Dec 09 $1 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will Tommy Paul win the 2025 French Open? Jun 04 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump create External Revenue Service in first 100 days? Apr 29 $25 $0 +0%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 29 $24 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? Apr 29 $25 $0 +0%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the New York Giants? Apr 28 $25 $0 +0%
Arsenal wins the Premier League? Apr 28 $27 +$1 +3%
Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government? Mar 30 $23 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win La Liga? Mar 27 $7 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by March 31? Mar 25 $23 $0 -1%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 24 $15 $0 -0%
Will George Russell win the 2025 Chinese Grand Prix Sprint? Mar 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Wofford vs. Tennessee Mar 22 $6 $0 +5%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 Chinese Grand Prix Sprint? Mar 21 $2 $0 -11%
Will Elon tweet 400-424 times March 14-21? Mar 20 $8 +$18 +233%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 52-53°F on March 17? Mar 18 $15 $0 +1%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 16 $15 $0 +0%
Duterte released from custody by Friday? Mar 16 $22 $0 +0%
Will egg prices be between $5.50 and $5.75 in February? Mar 13 $21 +$1 +5%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 11 $22 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84000 and $86000 on Mar 7? Mar 11 $21 $0 +2%
Temple vs. Tulsa Mar 06 $14 +$7 +45%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 48% $0
other 29% +$7
sports 11% +$6
crypto 6% $0
politics 3% $0
finance 2% $0
weather 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $10 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $18 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $3 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $21 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $3 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 36¢ $55 1h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $26 40h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $26 40h
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $51 43h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL No 37¢ $3 47h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY No 36¢ $3 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 58¢ $20 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 58¢ $25 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 59¢ $26 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 58¢ $20 2d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $16 3d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $16 3d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $14 3d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $37 3d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $52 3d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $43 4d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $38 4d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $6 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $40 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $40 4d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $22 4d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $30 4d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $52 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +0.7% -8.8% 42% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 12 +0.7% -8.8% 42% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 12 +0.7% -8.8% 42% 0% -9.5%
all 36 +2.7% -7.1% 56% 6% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.1% 6% -7.9%
10% -16.0% 6% -16.7%
15% -24.1% 6% -24.8%
20% -31.5% 3% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.49 · official $0.00 (match) · 104 history records