Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T00:10:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

64
0x6467…85e4
sports · 24 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$13 -11%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$11 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
Net worth$18
Realized−$11
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses11 / 9
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)20 / 24
History coverage3d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day7.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%
Chart Positions 3 History 20 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$11
14 days−$11
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 210.5 Over 64¢ 64¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Spurs 55¢ 55¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5 Over 49¢ 30¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-40%)
Colorado Rockies winning after 5 innings? Yes 97¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Under 62¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Over 60¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Michael Lorenzen: Strikeouts O/U 3.5 Under 55¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Jonathan David: 1+ goals Yes 35¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets New York Mets 52¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Baltimore Orioles 54¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 54¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $5 +$4 +79%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $5 +$3 +56%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $5 +$5 +93%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $6 +$7 +109%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $5 +$8 +152%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $5 +$3 +67%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Jonathan David: 1+ goals Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -99%
Baltimore Orioles winning after 5 innings? Jun 12 $5 $0 +5%
Texas Rangers winning after 5 innings? Jun 11 $4 $0 +1%
Colorado Rockies winning after 5 innings? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
George Kirby: Strikeouts O/U 5.5 Jun 11 $5 $0 +2%
Framber Valdez: Strikeouts O/U 5.5 Jun 11 $5 $0 +2%
Chris Sale: Strikeouts O/U 7.5 Jun 11 $5 +$4 +73%
Michael Lorenzen: Strikeouts O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $3 −$3 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 64% −$1
other 32% −$6
crypto 4% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-21.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -13.0% -21.2% 55% 35% -19.2%
≤30d 20 -13.0% -21.2% 55% 35% -19.2%
≤90d 20 -13.0% -21.2% 55% 35% -19.2%
all 20 -13.0% -21.2% 55% 35% -19.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover7.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.2% 35% -19.2%
10% -28.8% 35% -26.9%
15% -35.7% 35% -34.0%
20% -42.0% 35% -40.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.89 · official $17.89 (match) · 36 history records