Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:08:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
64 0x6463…eeb9 tech 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 164d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$104 (-7%) realized −$105 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate73%8W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$97per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$251now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$151
7 days+$151
14 days+$151
30 days+$151
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 41% −$229
politics 24% +$69
other 17% +$23
world 10% +$139
finance 7% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +75.4% +58.7% 100% 100% +58.7%
≤30d 2 +75.4% +58.7% 100% 100% +58.7%
≤90d 2 +75.4% +58.7% 100% 100% +58.7%
all 11 -7.8% -16.6% 73% 36% -16.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.6% 36% -16.9%
10% -24.6% 18% -24.9%
15% -31.9% 18% -32.2%
20% -38.6% 9% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 86% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +75% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$117 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

164d coverage
Net worth$251
Realized−$105
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses8 / 3
Open positions4
Markets (closed)11 / 15
History coverage164d
Avg bet$97
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election? Yes 45¢ 44¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 37¢ 44¢ $50 $59 +$9 (+18%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 75¢ 74¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 19 $100 +$140 +140%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Jun 18 $100 +$11 +11%
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Feb 10 $201 +$77 +38%
Will Google have the top AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 10 $100 +$9 +9%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 26 $100 +$12 +12%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Jan 10 $100 +$1 +1%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 7? Jan 09 $100 −$100 -100%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on January 7? Jan 09 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Jensen Huang say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 20+ times d Jan 09 $200 −$200 -100%
Meta (META) Up or Down on January 7? Jan 09 $100 +$2 +2%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 9? Jan 08 $45 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 75¢ $50 1h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 37¢ $51 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $240 11h
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? BUY Yes 19¢ $52 43h
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the BUY Yes 45¢ $102 43h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 38¢ $100 46h
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? BUY Yes 98¢ $1 143d
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? BUY Yes 96¢ $100 150d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? SELL Yes 94¢ $101 160d
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? SELL Yes 33¢ $172 161d
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 9? SELL Yes 98¢ $45 162d
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 9? BUY Yes 97¢ $45 163d
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on January 7? BUY Up 87¢ $50 163d
Meta (META) Up or Down on January 7? BUY Down 98¢ $100 163d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 7? BUY Up 63¢ $100 163d
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 89¢ $100 163d
Will Google have the top AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $100 163d
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? BUY Yes 19¢ $100 163d
Will Jensen Huang say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 20+ times d BUY Yes 8¢ $200 163d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $100 163d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March BUY Yes 90¢ $100 163d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $251.17 · official $251.17 (match) · 29 history records