Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:55:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
64 0x645f…2c7f sports 90 markets active 1h ago coverage 39d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$542 (+5%) realized +$554 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%49W / 37L
Drawdown67%max
Avg bet$116per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$127est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$1,109now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$151
7 days−$441
14 days−$564
30 days−$189
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% +$737
other 17% −$12
world 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -15.0% -23.1% 40% 40% -27.1%
≤30d 75 +10.5% +0.0% 55% 55% -12.0%
≤90d 86 +16.9% +5.7% 57% 57% -1.7%
all 86 +16.9% +5.7% 57% 57% -1.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.7% 57% -1.7%
10% -4.4% 56% -11.1%
15% -13.6% 51% -19.7%
20% -22.1% 44% -27.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +41% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$86 vs −$95 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$1,109
Realized+$554
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses49 / 37
Est. fees paid−$127
Open positions4
Markets (closed)86 / 90
History coverage39d
Avg bet$116
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown67%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 86 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $818 $809 −$10 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs 9z 27¢ 26¢ $162 $159 −$3 (-2%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BetBoom Team 44¢ 46¢ $95 $98 +$3 (+3%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $45 $43 −$2 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $32 +$151 +474%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $328 −$324 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $148 +$180 +122%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $49 −$49 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $54 −$53 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $139 −$137 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $100 +$38 +38%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $161 −$159 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $114 +$47 +41%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $100 −$99 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $140 +$72 +52%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $101 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $70 −$69 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $52 −$51 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $318 +$173 +54%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $101 +$53 +52%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $98 +$66 +67%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $49 −$48 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $85 −$83 -98%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $49 −$48 -99%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs 9z (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $79 −$78 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 06 $40 −$39 -98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $80 −$79 -99%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $118 −$116 -98%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $180 −$178 -99%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $82 +$47 +57%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Heroic (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $139 +$146 +105%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $101 +$68 +67%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $61 +$47 +78%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $101 +$63 +62%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 04 $45 +$14 +30%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $66 +$41 +62%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $100 +$65 +65%
Counter-Strike: Gaimin Gladiators vs Heroic (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 03 $142 +$26 +18%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sinners (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $62 +$51 +82%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 03 $78 +$64 +82%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $86 +$76 +88%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $36 −$35 -99%
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 02 $30 −$30 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 02 $169 +$106 +62%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 02 $86 +$34 +40%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $70 +$59 +84%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs NRG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $50 +$57 +114%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Sharks (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $24 −$24 -98%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 02 $6 +$19 +340%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 02 $31 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $121 +$134 +111%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Sharks (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $49 +$72 +147%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $46 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 27¢ $166 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $32 7h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 44¢ $97 46h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $134 47h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $186 47h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $522 2d
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $708 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 65¢ $328 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL BetBoom Team 100¢ $328 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 44¢ $104 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 45¢ $43 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 61¢ $51 2d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 58¢ $49 3d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 35¢ $54 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 61¢ $139 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL Natus Vincere 99¢ $139 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 71¢ $100 4d
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) BUY Spirit 64¢ $161 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $161 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 68¢ $100 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 70¢ $114 5d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 100¢ $213 5d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 56¢ $101 6d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 65¢ $140 6d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 53¢ $70 6d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 39¢ $52 6d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Spirit 100¢ $491 6d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 64¢ $154 6d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $154 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,108.85 · official $1,108.85 (match) · 162 history records