Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:24:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
64 0x645f…c4d9 other 28 markets active 5d ago coverage 448d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$6 (+2%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate46%13W / 15L
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% −$1
other 26% +$8
tech 11% $0
sports 11% −$1
politics 7% $0
economics 4% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -40.5% -46.1% 0% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 3 -30.0% -36.7% 0% 0% -10.9%
≤90d 3 -30.0% -36.7% 0% 0% -10.9%
all 28 -4.0% -13.2% 46% 7% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 7% -7.8%
10% -21.5% 7% -16.6%
15% -29.1% 7% -24.7%
20% -36.0% 7% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 95% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% too few recent
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.04 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.65 per $1 lost it wins $2.65
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

448d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses13 / 15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)28 / 28
History coverage448d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 28 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $43 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $72 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $4 $0 -9%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Dec 14 $2 +$2 +119%
Will Bitcoin reach $120K in June? Dec 14 $1 $0 +2%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? May 23 $2 $0 +3%
No Trump announcement of next Fed Chair by June 30? Apr 26 $15 $0 +1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? Apr 25 $15 $0 -0%
Will the New Democratic Party win the third most seats in the next Can Apr 25 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Prince Edward Island Apr 24 $15 $0 +0%
Will Sam Altman buy TikTok? Apr 23 $15 $0 +0%
Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government? Apr 23 $27 $0 -0%
Will AppLovin buy TikTok? Apr 22 $14 $0 +0%
Will Sebastian-Constantin Popescu advance to the Romanian Presidential Apr 22 $1 $0 +0%
Will Dalton Knecht win NBA Rookie of the Year? Apr 22 $0 $0 -100%
Will Dyson Daniels win 2024-25 NBA Defensive Player of the Year? Apr 21 $17 −$1 -7%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Apr 17 $18 $0 -0%
Will Rory McIlroy win The 2025 Masters? Apr 15 $11 +$7 +58%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? Apr 13 $12 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,750,000-2,000,000 people? Apr 12 $9 $0 +0%
TikTok sale announced before May? Apr 11 $2 $0 +3%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Apr 11 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 110-119 times April 4 - 11? Apr 09 $12 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 08 $12 $0 -2%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? Apr 06 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? Mar 25 $12 $0 +1%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 Chinese Grand Prix Sprint? Mar 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Atalanta win the Serie A? Mar 22 $12 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $34 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $9 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 64¢ $43 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 21¢ $22 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 21¢ $13 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 21¢ $35 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 46¢ $1 6d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 7d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 42¢ $35 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 42¢ $3 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 42¢ $33 8d
Will Bitcoin reach $120K in June? BUY No 98¢ $1 358d
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? SELL Yes $4 372d
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? BUY Yes $2 376d
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? BUY No 97¢ $2 403d
No Trump announcement of next Fed Chair by June 30? SELL Yes 85¢ $15 417d
No Trump announcement of next Fed Chair by June 30? BUY Yes 84¢ $15 418d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? SELL No 99¢ $15 418d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? BUY No 99¢ $15 418d
Will the New Democratic Party win the third most seats in the next Can SELL No 97¢ $15 419d
Will the New Democratic Party win the third most seats in the next Can BUY No 96¢ $15 419d
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Prince Edward Island SELL No 95¢ $15 419d
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Prince Edward Island BUY No 95¢ $15 420d
Will Sam Altman buy TikTok? SELL No 99¢ $15 420d
Will Sam Altman buy TikTok? BUY No 99¢ $15 420d
Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government? SELL No 99¢ $15 420d
Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government? BUY No 99¢ $15 420d
Will AppLovin buy TikTok? SELL No 98¢ $14 421d
Will Sebastian-Constantin Popescu advance to the Romanian Presidential SELL Yes $0 421d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 71 history records