trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | No | 89¢ | 90¢ | $75 | $76 | +$1 (+1%) |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? | Yes | 27¢ | 22¢ | $68 | $57 | −$11 (-17%) |
| Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | No | 98¢ | 98¢ | $20 | $20 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 1¢ | 2¢ | $0 | $1 | +$0 (+78%) |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 64¢ | 58¢ | $0 | $0 | −$0 (-9%) |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | No | 50¢ | 50¢ | $0 | $0 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs. Pittsburgh Pirates | Tampa Bay Rays | 48¢ | 0¢ | $39 | $0 | −$39 (-100%) |
| Will Trump say "Gaza" 5+ times during meeting with Netanyahu? | Yes | 41¢ | 0¢ | $50 | $0 | −$50 (-100%) |
| Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies | Colorado Rockies | 1¢ | 0¢ | $100 | $0 | −$100 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? | Jun 13 | $28 | +$8 | +27% |
| Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron | Jun 12 | $73 | +$102 | +140% |
| Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies | Jun 11 | $100 | −$100 | -100% |
| Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 11 | $15 | −$8 | -53% |
| San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Angels | Apr 19 | $50 | +$47 | +93% |
| Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? | Apr 19 | $140 | −$120 | -86% |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs. Pittsburgh Pirates | Apr 19 | $40 | −$39 | -98% |
| Will annual inflation increase by 2.5% in March? | Mar 12 | $150 | −$148 | -99% |
| Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? | Mar 12 | $401 | −$335 | -84% |
| Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? | Mar 08 | $178 | −$21 | -12% |
| First Round Pool C: Chinese Taipei vs. Japan | Mar 06 | $300 | +$30 | +10% |
| First Round Pool C: South Korea vs. Czechia | Mar 06 | $150 | +$9 | +6% |
| Will annual inflation increase by 2.4% in March? | Feb 25 | $153 | −$138 | -90% |
| US x Iran meeting by February 28, 2026? | Feb 20 | $133 | +$17 | +13% |
| US x Iran meeting by February 13, 2026? | Feb 14 | $63 | +$237 | +376% |
| Will Trump say "Gaza" 5+ times during meeting with Netanyahu? | Feb 11 | $50 | −$50 | -100% |
| UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Amir Albazi (Flyweight, Main Card | Feb 08 | $200 | +$63 | +32% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | +3.5% | -6.3% | 50% | 50% | -8.6% |
| ≤30d | 4 | +3.5% | -6.3% | 50% | 50% | -8.6% |
| ≤90d | 7 | -11.2% | -19.7% | 43% | 43% | -32.0% |
| all | 17 | -1.6% | -10.9% | 47% | 35% | -27.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -10.9% | 35% | -27.7% |
| 10% | -19.5% | 29% | -34.6% |
| 15% | -27.2% | 18% | -41.0% |
| 20% | -34.4% | 18% | -46.7% |