Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:34:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
64 0x645a…b910 other 85 markets active 0h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$99 (-5%) realized −$99 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate53%44W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day10.7pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit35%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$87
14 days−$119
30 days−$130
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% −$45
other 45% −$82
crypto 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-25.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 -19.5% -27.2% 57% 41% -14.9%
≤30d 83 -18.0% -25.8% 53% 40% -15.1%
≤90d 83 -18.0% -25.8% 53% 40% -15.1%
all 83 -18.0% -25.8% 53% 40% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.8% 40% -15.1%
10% -32.9% 27% -23.2%
15% -39.4% 19% -30.6%
20% -45.4% 13% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$11 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$99
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses44 / 39
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)83 / 85
History coverage16d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day10.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 83 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $7 −$6 -88%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -98%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 18 $39 +$3 +8%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $25 +$14 +57%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $19 +$7 +35%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 −$6 -39%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $7 +$3 +46%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$13 -66%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $28 +$13 +46%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $19 +$9 +48%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $81 −$63 -78%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$16 +81%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 −$4 -81%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $104 +$5 +5%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 14 $95 +$9 +10%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $85 +$10 +12%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $80 +$3 +4%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -91%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -99%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 14 $31 −$11 -35%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 −$3 -62%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $30 +$4 +14%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 14 $50 +$9 +18%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $39 +$3 +7%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $30 +$2 +6%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $15 $0 +2%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $25 −$6 -23%
Will CD Palestino win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $52 +$10 +18%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $18 +$3 +15%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand Jun 13 $52 −$31 -58%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Thailand vs United Arab Emirates Jun 13 $34 +$18 +54%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 13 $62 +$5 +7%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 13 $50 +$10 +20%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $70 +$23 +33%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $45 +$6 +13%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 −$8 -81%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $16 −$16 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 +$4 +76%
Ilkley: Lulu Sun vs Mary Stoiana Jun 12 $40 +$9 +23%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $15 +$17 +108%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $25 +$8 +33%
Libema Open (Doubles): Balaji/Ram vs Bergs/Rinderknech Jun 11 $32 +$8 +24%
Will England win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $8 +$1 +10%
Another pandemic before GTA VI? Jun 10 $55 −$4 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 0m
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 0m
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1m
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 14m
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 1h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers SELL Cleveland Guardians 100¢ $42 1h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Cleveland Guardians 92¢ $39 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $39 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $25 6h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 6h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 73¢ $26 6h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $19 19h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 25h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 25h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 17¢ $9 25h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 68¢ $7 27h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 27¢ $7 27h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 43h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $20 43h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $41 43h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $28 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $19 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 14¢ $18 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $81 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $60 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 94¢ $37 3d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 3d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 3d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels SELL Tampa Bay Rays 100¢ $109 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.90 · official $4.90 (match) · 179 history records