Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:57:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
64 0x6456…f514 weather 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 103d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$39 (-1%) realized +$193 · open −$232
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate82%28W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$94per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$567now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 47% −$1
sports 19% −$38
world 14% $0
crypto 14% −$236
weather 5% $0
tech 1% $0
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 16 -0.0% -9.6% 88% 0% -10.6%
≤90d 32 -0.4% -9.8% 88% 0% -10.6%
all 34 -3.3% -12.5% 82% 0% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 0% -10.7%
10% -20.9% 0% -19.2%
15% -28.5% 0% -27.0%
20% -35.5% 0% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 93% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$12 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$567
Realized+$193
Unrealized−$232
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses28 / 6
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions9
Markets (closed)34 / 43
History coverage103d
Avg bet$94
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will XRP reach $5.00 by December 31, 2026? No 50¢ 97¢ $246 $477 +$231 (+94%)
Will XRP reach $5.00 by December 31, 2026? Yes 50¢ 3¢ $246 $15 −$231 (-94%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 13°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 26°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 23°C or below on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 23°C or below on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 15? No 99¢ 99¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+0%)
Will Seattle have less than 0.5 inches of precipitation in June? No 100¢ 95¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 22°C or below on June 10? Jun 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 19°C or below on June 9 Jun 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on May 28? May 29 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 70-71°F on May 27? May 28 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C on May 27? May 28 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on May 27? May 28 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on May 27? May 28 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on May 27? May 27 $7 $0 +0%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $565 −$15 -3%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? May 26 $584 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 19 $9 $0 +0%
Will Meta AI - Assistant & Glasses be #1 Free App in the US Apple App May 19 $9 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on May 18? May 18 $9 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the second highest estimated revenue for May 11–May 1 May 18 $9 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be -1°C or below on May 15? May 16 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on May 15? May 15 $9 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 11°C or below on May 15? May 15 $9 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 13°C or below on May 14? May 14 $9 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C or below on May 12? May 12 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 45°F or below on May 12? May 12 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 56-57°F on May 12? May 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 24°C or below on May 12? May 12 $2 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o May 06 $1 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 06 $2 $0 +0%
Will Moonshot have the best Coding AI model at the end of April 2026? May 06 $2 $0 +0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 06 $2 $0 +0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 27 $494 +$2 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $187 −$23 -12%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $480 +$2 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $620 −$4 -1%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 10 $305 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Mar 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $9 1h
Will Seattle have less than 0.5 inches of precipitation in June? BUY No 100¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 23°C or below on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 13°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 26°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 23°C or below on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 22°C or below on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $10 5d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 19°C or below on June 9 BUY No 100¢ $10 5d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $10 5d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $10 5d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on May 27? BUY No 100¢ $8 18d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on May 27? BUY No 100¢ $9 18d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 70-71°F on May 27? BUY No 100¢ $9 18d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on May 27? BUY No 100¢ $7 18d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C on May 27? BUY No 100¢ $8 18d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $9 18d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 40¢ $224 19d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 62¢ $175 19d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 62¢ $166 19d
Will OpenAI have the second highest estimated revenue for May 11–May 1 BUY Yes 100¢ $9 27d
Will Meta AI - Assistant & Glasses be #1 Free App in the US Apple App BUY No 100¢ $9 27d
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on May 18? BUY No 100¢ $9 27d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $9 27d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 11°C or below on May 15? BUY No 100¢ $9 31d
Will the lowest temperature in London be -1°C or below on May 15? BUY No 100¢ $9 31d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 13°C or below on May 14? BUY No 100¢ $9 31d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on May 15? BUY No 100¢ $9 31d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 56-57°F on May 12? BUY No 100¢ $1 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $566.72 · official $566.72 (match) · 231 history records