Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T04:34:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
64 0x6452…2bcf crypto 424 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (347 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$27 (-1%) realized −$27 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate64%269W / 154L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day346.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$135
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (347 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 423 -6.6% -15.5% 64% 41% -13.4%
≤30d 423 -6.6% -15.5% 64% 41% -13.4%
≤90d 423 -6.6% -15.5% 64% 41% -13.4%
all 423 -6.6% -15.5% 64% 41% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover346.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.5% 41% -13.4%
10% ← realistic here -23.6% 19% -21.7%
15% -31.0% 11% -29.2%
20% -37.7% 6% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses269 / 154
Open positions0
Markets (closed)423 / 424
History coverage3d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day346.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 423 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 21 $4 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 21 $79 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 21 $77 +$6 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 21 $26 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 21 $26 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 21 $26 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 21 $25 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 21 $52 −$25 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 21 $26 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 21 $19 −$15 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 21 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 21 $41 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 21 $31 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 21 $26 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 21 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 21 $31 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 21 $20 +$6 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 21 $31 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 21 $30 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 21 $24 −$15 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 21 $31 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 21 $24 −$3 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 21 $0 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 21 $31 +$6 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 21 $30 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$1 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 21 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 21 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 21 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 21 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 21 $2 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 21 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 21 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$1 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 21 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 21 $2 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 21 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 21 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 21 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 21 $2 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 21 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 20 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $0 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $4 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Down 62¢ $78 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $79 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET SELL Down 83¢ $82 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $77 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Down 71¢ $29 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $26 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $28 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Up 42¢ $28 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $26 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $27 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $25 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Down 53¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Up 15¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Down 43¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Up 37¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1097 history records