Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:46:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
64 0x6451…025f other 116 markets active 0h ago coverage 597d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3,064 (+17%) realized +$2,916 · open +$148
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate32%35W / 74L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown65%max
Avg bet$152per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$93est.
Kalshi-fit26%portable
Net worth$2,072now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$682
7 days−$682
14 days−$682
30 days−$682
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 72% −$256
sports 22% +$3,013
politics 6% +$75
world 0% +$114
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -75.4% -77.8% 10% 10% -78.1%
≤30d 10 -75.4% -77.8% 10% 10% -78.1%
≤90d 59 -12.5% -20.9% 29% 29% -8.9%
all 109 -8.4% -17.1% 32% 31% +6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.1% 31% +6.7%
10% -25.0% 31% -3.5%
15% -32.3% 30% -12.9%
20% -38.9% 30% -21.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +18% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$294 vs −$101 · ×2.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.37 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

597d coverage
Net worth$2,072
Realized+$2,916
Unrealized+$148
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses35 / 74
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$93
Open positions7
Markets (closed)109 / 116
History coverage597d
Avg bet$152
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit26%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 109 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $916 $1,080 +$164 (+18%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $500 $498 −$2 (-0%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $111 $103 −$8 (-7%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-3%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $47 $47 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Hellas Verona FC win on 2026-05-03? Jun 18 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest FC vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw? Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Rayo Vallecano win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa Conference League? Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Manchester United FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? Jun 18 $47 −$47 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10? Jun 18 $77 −$77 -100%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-05-03? Jun 18 $74 −$74 -100%
Will Nott'm Forest win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Braga win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Jun 18 $141 −$141 -100%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jun 18 $295 −$295 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $89 +$129 +146%
Will Freiburg win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? May 06 $37 −$1 -3%
Will FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? May 06 $71 +$281 +398%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 05 $274 −$25 -9%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $81 +$243 +300%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $51 +$149 +291%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? May 03 $63 +$73 +116%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $51 +$88 +172%
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $49 +$114 +233%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $102 +$94 +93%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Apr 29 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Apr 28 $601 +$1,041 +173%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-27? Apr 27 $200 +$152 +76%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-04-26? Apr 27 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Chelsea FC vs. Leeds United FC end in a draw? Apr 27 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 26 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 26 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 26 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-04-25? Apr 26 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Newcastle United FC end in a draw? Apr 26 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 26 $100 +$81 +81%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $150 +$45 +30%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $100 +$94 +94%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-01-11? Apr 24 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest FC vs. Burnley FC end in a draw? Apr 24 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 24 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Como win on 2025-11-08? Apr 24 $99 −$99 -100%
Will Chelsea FC vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw? Apr 24 $52 −$52 -100%
Will West Ham vs. Newcastle end in a draw? Apr 24 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Manchester City vs. Bournemouth end in a draw? Apr 24 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Manchester United win on 2025-11-08? Apr 24 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Tottenham win on 2025-11-01? Apr 24 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-04-21? Apr 24 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2025-11-03? Apr 24 $100 −$100 -100%
Will FC Porto win on 2026-04-16? Apr 24 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 24 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Manchester United win on 2025-11-01? Apr 24 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-15? Apr 24 $42 −$42 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-21? Apr 24 $199 −$199 -100%
Will Aston Villa win on 2025-11-01? Apr 24 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Celtic beat Club Brugge? Apr 24 $120 −$120 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $114 4m
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $103 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $48 10h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $51 10h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $89 10h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $206 10h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $513 10h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $940 6d
Will Nott'm Forest win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? BUY Yes 13¢ $50 41d
Will Rayo Vallecano win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa Conference League? BUY Yes 21¢ $51 41d
Will Braga win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? BUY Yes 18¢ $31 42d
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY Yes 0¢ $31 42d
Will Freiburg win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? SELL Yes 15¢ $36 42d
Will FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? SELL Yes 92¢ $352 42d
Will FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $71 42d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 25¢ $77 44d
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 31¢ $249 44d
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-04? SELL Yes 58¢ $324 44d
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-04? BUY Yes 14¢ $58 44d
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY Yes 0¢ $41 44d
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-04? SELL Yes 100¢ $200 44d
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-04? BUY Yes 25¢ $51 44d
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-04? BUY Yes 14¢ $23 44d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? SELL Yes 99¢ $136 45d
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-03? SELL Yes 81¢ $139 45d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? BUY Yes 45¢ $63 45d
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach win on 2026-05-03? SELL Yes 100¢ $163 45d
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-05-03? BUY Yes 20¢ $74 45d
Will Hellas Verona FC win on 2026-05-03? BUY Yes 20¢ $26 45d
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-03? BUY Yes 29¢ $51 45d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,071.81 · official $2,071.81 (match) · 275 history records