Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:36:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
64 0x6451…b57a sports 4 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$70 (-14%) realized −$70 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%1W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$127per market
Trades / day30.9pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$132now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$72
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 50% 50% -27.1%
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 50% 50% -27.1%
≤90d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 50% 50% -27.1%
all 2 +0.1% -9.4% 50% 50% -27.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.4% 50% -27.1%
10% ← realistic here -18.1% 50% -34.1%
15% -26.0% 50% -40.5%
20% -33.2% 50% -46.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
41.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$150 vs −$222 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$132
Realized−$70
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses1 / 1
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)2 / 4
History coverage5d
Avg bet$127
Trades / day30.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals San Diego Padres 48¢ 48¢ $78 $77 −$1 (-1%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Toronto Blue Jays 52¢ 52¢ $54 $54 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $225 −$222 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $149 +$150 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY San Diego Padres 48¢ $3 2m
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY San Diego Padres 48¢ $3 5m
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY San Diego Padres 48¢ $3 8m
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY San Diego Padres 48¢ $3 11m
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY San Diego Padres 48¢ $3 14m
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY San Diego Padres 48¢ $3 17m
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY San Diego Padres 48¢ $3 20m
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY San Diego Padres 48¢ $3 23m
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY San Diego Padres 48¢ $3 26m
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY San Diego Padres 48¢ $3 29m
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY San Diego Padres 48¢ $3 32m
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY San Diego Padres 48¢ $3 35m
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY San Diego Padres 48¢ $3 38m
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY San Diego Padres 48¢ $3 41m
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY San Diego Padres 48¢ $3 44m
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY San Diego Padres 48¢ $3 47m
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 52¢ $3 48m
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 52¢ $3 50m
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY San Diego Padres 48¢ $3 50m
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 52¢ $3 52m
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY San Diego Padres 48¢ $3 53m
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 52¢ $3 54m
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 52¢ $3 56m
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY San Diego Padres 48¢ $3 56m
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 52¢ $3 57m
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY San Diego Padres 48¢ $3 59m
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 52¢ $3 59m
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 52¢ $3 1h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY San Diego Padres 48¢ $3 1h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 52¢ $3 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $131.62 · official $131.62 (match) · 168 history records