Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T18:29:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

64
0x644f…252a
world · 61 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$25 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$24 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP world specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$75
Realized−$24
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses23 / 30
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions8
Markets (closed)53 / 61
History coverage37d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%
Chart Positions 8 History 53 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$5
14 days−$9
30 days−$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? No 82¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+22%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? No 84¢ 99¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+18%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 72¢ 84¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+16%)
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? No 89¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+12%)
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026? No 90¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+11%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? No 92¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+9%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? No 94¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026? No 94¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan this week? No 98¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 92¢ 94¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 90¢ 88¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No 16¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 86¢ 83¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026? No 21¢ 21¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Yes 8¢ 2¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-81%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $10 −$3 -26%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 13 $5 $0 +10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 11 $5 $0 -8%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 11 $10 −$2 -23%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 09 $10 $0 +3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $10 +$1 +6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 08 $5 $0 +0%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? Jun 08 $5 −$1 -20%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 03 $10 +$1 +5%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 03 $4 −$2 -36%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 01 $5 −$1 -16%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 01 $5 $0 +9%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 31 $5 −$3 -56%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? May 30 $5 −$1 -26%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $10 +$1 +11%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? May 27 $5 −$1 -23%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 26 $5 −$1 -28%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $5 +$1 +12%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 23 $5 +$2 +32%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 23 $5 −$1 -20%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 23 $5 −$1 -24%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 23 $10 −$3 -27%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 23 $10 −$3 -25%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 23 $5 −$1 -12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 22 $5 −$1 -20%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? May 22 $5 −$3 -56%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 21 $10 −$3 -27%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 20 $10 −$2 -21%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 20 $5 $0 +6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 20 $5 $0 -5%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 18 $5 +$1 +11%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 17 $10 $0 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 17 $5 +$1 +19%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? May 16 $5 +$1 +26%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? May 16 $5 −$1 -22%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? May 16 $5 −$1 -28%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? May 15 $5 −$1 -23%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 15 $5 −$2 -50%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 15 $5 −$2 -42%
Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan this week? May 15 $5 $0 +2%
Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30? May 15 $5 −$2 -36%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 15 $5 +$1 +17%
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30? May 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 12 $5 +$1 +11%
Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31? May 12 $5 +$1 +17%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? May 12 $10 +$4 +42%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 11 $5 +$1 +18%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 11 $5 $0 +8%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 11 $5 −$3 -52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 84% −$27
finance 8% −$10
other 7% +$10
sports 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 21¢ $5 5m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 58¢ $3 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 16¢ $5 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL No 100¢ $5 12h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $5 13h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $5 16h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $5 16h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 19h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 19h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 53¢ $6 23h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 24h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $5 28h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL No 44¢ $5 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY No 48¢ $5 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 30¢ $2 2d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY No 84¢ $5 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 63¢ $5 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 17¢ $8 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 27¢ $6 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 47¢ $5 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL Yes 13¢ $5 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 4d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 5d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 44¢ $5 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 35¢ $4 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 42¢ $5 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL No 41¢ $3 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -6.3% -15.2% 44% 0% -15.7%
≤30d 43 -11.9% -20.3% 37% 16% -20.5%
≤90d 53 -8.7% -17.4% 43% 23% -16.5%
all 53 -8.7% -17.4% 43% 23% -16.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.4% 23% -16.5%
10% -25.3% 9% -24.5%
15% -32.5% 4% -31.8%
20% -39.1% 2% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $74.93 · official $74.93 (match) · 156 history records