Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T12:37:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
64 0x644c…91fb other 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 10d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$20 (-11%) realized −$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -63% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -67% what you keep after slip
Net edge-67%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%1W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$70now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 10d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-66.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +47.8% +33.7% 100% 100% +33.7%
≤30d 4 -63.1% -66.6% 25% 25% -26.7%
≤90d 4 -63.1% -66.6% 25% 25% -26.7%
all 4 -63.1% -66.6% 25% 25% -26.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -66.6% 25% -26.7%
10% -69.8% 25% -33.7%
15% -72.7% 25% -40.1%
20% -75.4% 0% -46.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -63% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$17 · ×1.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$70
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses1 / 3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)4 / 6
History coverage10d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $61 +$29 +48%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $40 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $30 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 7d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $40 7d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 7d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $15 7d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $15 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $69.56 · official $69.56 (match) · 8 history records