Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T08:46:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
64 0x644b…ec38 other 406 markets active 1h ago coverage 287d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$333 (-1%) realized −$332 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate63%254W / 150L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$95per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$37est.
Kalshi-fit24%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$20
7 days+$114
14 days+$114
30 days+$114
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 91% −$968
sports 5% +$495
world 2% +$54
finance 1% −$58
economics 1% +$5
crypto 0% +$86
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +28.3% +16.1% 38% 31% -7.4%
≤30d 13 +28.3% +16.1% 38% 31% -7.4%
≤90d 26 +45.7% +31.9% 54% 46% -0.3%
all 404 -0.3% -9.8% 63% 49% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 49% -10.4%
10% -18.5% 35% -19.0%
15% -26.3% 27% -26.8%
20% -33.6% 20% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +22% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$37 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

287d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$332
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses254 / 150
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$37
Open positions1
Markets (closed)404 / 406
History coverage287d
Avg bet$95
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit24%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 404 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Over 23¢ 22¢ $33 $32 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 40 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $608 −$5 -1%
Spread: England (-1.5) AND Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 28 $50 +$53 +105%
Jordan vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $51 +$88 +172%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $53 −$52 -99%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $508 −$39 -8%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $610 −$13 -2%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $611 −$11 -2%
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Jun 26 $614 −$14 -2%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $614 −$14 -2%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $21 +$63 +291%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $507 +$1 +0%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $505 +$77 +15%
Will CF Estrela da Amadora win on 2026-05-16? May 17 $101 +$17 +17%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $78 +$26 +34%
Will VfL Wolfsburg vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? May 09 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. RC Celta de Vigo end in a draw? May 09 $30 −$29 -98%
Will Sevilla FC vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona end in a draw? May 09 $40 +$78 +195%
Sporting CP vs. Vitória SC: Both Teams to Score May 05 $49 +$59 +122%
Will Everton FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? May 05 $49 +$248 +504%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $63 −$54 -85%
Spread: AS Roma (-1.5) May 04 $33 +$62 +188%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-03? May 04 $113 +$41 +36%
Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $107 +$7 +6%
Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München: Both Teams to Score Apr 12 $52 +$55 +105%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-07? Apr 07 $50 −$49 -98%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,300 (LOW) in March 2026? Mar 11 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-04? Mar 03 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Bristol City FC win on 2026-02-14? Mar 02 $31 −$31 -100%
Arsenal FC vs. Chelsea FC: Both Teams to Score Mar 02 $71 +$60 +85%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-28? Feb 28 $103 +$68 +67%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-02-26? Feb 25 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-02-25? Feb 24 $51 −$51 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-22? Feb 23 $135 +$17 +12%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-16? Feb 15 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-02-13? Feb 12 $124 −$124 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-11? Feb 11 $103 +$36 +35%
Will FC Nantes vs. Olympique Lyonnais end in a draw? Feb 07 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-02-07? Feb 07 $101 +$13 +12%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-02-04? Feb 04 $100 +$31 +31%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-03? Feb 03 $108 +$22 +20%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-02-01? Feb 02 $101 +$8 +8%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-02-01? Feb 01 $123 +$25 +20%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-01-31? Feb 01 $116 +$6 +5%
Will BSC Young Boys win on 2026-01-29? Jan 30 $108 +$8 +8%
Will FC København win on 2026-01-28? Jan 29 $103 +$5 +5%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-01-17? Jan 17 $501 −$501 -100%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-01-17? Jan 17 $416 +$84 +20%
Will Pisa SC win on 2026-01-16? Jan 17 $32 +$6 +19%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-01-17? Jan 15 $104 −$104 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 23¢ $34 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 59¢ $603 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 58¢ $608 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $53 10h
Jordan vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 36¢ $51 10h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? SELL No 42¢ $469 10h
Spread: England (-1.5) AND Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY 48¢ $50 14h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 44¢ $508 14h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 27¢ $291 19h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 27¢ $291 19h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 27¢ $1 19h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 27¢ $14 19h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 27¢ $610 21h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY 24¢ $30 41h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 39¢ $232 45h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 39¢ $47 45h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 39¢ $4 45h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 39¢ $23 45h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 39¢ $29 45h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 39¢ $9 45h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 39¢ $37 45h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 39¢ $19 45h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 39¢ $19 45h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 39¢ $18 45h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 39¢ $24 45h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 39¢ $5 45h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 39¢ $5 45h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 39¢ $7 45h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 39¢ $9 45h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 39¢ $20 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.28 · official $32.28 (match) · 925 history records