Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:55:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

64
0x644a…8caf
crypto · 497 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$8,148 -62%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$8,145 · open −$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$7
Realized−$8,145
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses270 / 691
Open positions1
Markets (closed)961 / 497
History coverage3d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day1040.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 961 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8,222
7 days−$8,145
14 days−$8,145
30 days−$8,145
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Up 70¢ 78¢ $5 $5 +$1 (+13%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Down 60¢ 22¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-64%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Down 14¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Down 12¢ 0¢ $92 $0 −$92 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Down 62¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - May 21, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Up 65¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Down 70¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Down 69¢ 0¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Down 70¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Down 65¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Down 61¢ 0¢ $61 $0 −$61 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Down 63¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Up 6¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Down 57¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - May 22, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Down 70¢ 0¢ $51 $0 −$51 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Down 64¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Down 72¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Down 70¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Up 90¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - May 22, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Down 69¢ 0¢ $32 $0 −$32 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - May 19, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Down 66¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Up 74¢ 0¢ $38 $0 −$38 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - May 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Down 61¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Down 60¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 12 $92 −$92 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 21, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 12 $26 −$26 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 12 $61 −$61 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 12 $22 −$22 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 22, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 12 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 22, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 12 $32 −$32 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 19, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 12 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 12 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $36 −$36 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 12 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 12 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 12 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 12 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 12 $32 −$32 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 22, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 12 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% +$202
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $4 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $3 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $3 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $2 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $2 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $7 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $2 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $3 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-53.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 961 -48.6% -53.5% 28% 22% -44.3%
≤30d 961 -48.6% -53.5% 28% 22% -44.3%
≤90d 961 -48.6% -53.5% 28% 22% -44.3%
all 961 -48.6% -53.5% 28% 22% -44.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1040.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -53.5% 22% -44.3%
10% ← realistic here -57.9% 15% -49.6%
15% -62.0% 10% -54.5%
20% -65.7% 6% -59.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.35 · official $7.51 (match) · 3500 history records