Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:48:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
64 0x6447…3aa3 crypto 88 markets active 1h ago coverage 89d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$392 (-10%) realized −$305 · open −$87
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -62% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -66% what you keep after slip
Net edge-66%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate14%11W / 67L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$746now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$9
14 days+$9
30 days−$70
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 40% −$650
world 28% +$209
politics 15% +$121
economics 12% −$51
finance 3% −$10
other 1% +$10
sports 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-66.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +57.2% +42.2% 100% 100% +42.2%
≤30d 2 +16.7% +5.6% 50% 50% -27.8%
≤90d 78 -62.4% -66.0% 14% 12% -18.1%
all 78 -62.4% -66.0% 14% 12% -18.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -66.0% 12% -18.1%
10% -69.2% 9% -25.9%
15% -72.2% 6% -33.1%
20% -74.9% 5% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 75% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -62% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -85% → late -40% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$11 · ×3.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$746
Realized−$305
Unrealized−$87
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses11 / 67
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions10
Markets (closed)78 / 88
History coverage89d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 78 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $360 $334 −$26 (-7%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $205 $207 +$2 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 29¢ 30¢ $51 $52 +$1 (+2%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $46 $47 +$1 (+1%)
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? Yes 24¢ 13¢ $65 $35 −$30 (-46%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? Yes 13¢ 7¢ $55 $28 −$27 (-48%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $27 $26 −$1 (-3%)
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $13 $7 −$6 (-46%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-80%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 60 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 17 $16 +$9 +57%
Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026? May 23 $330 −$79 -24%
Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026? May 08 $21 −$5 -26%
Will Gold have the best performance in 2026? May 06 $41 +$10 +24%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 21 $1,093 +$209 +19%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in April? Apr 19 $140 −$134 -96%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in April? Apr 14 $20 −$19 -94%
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t Apr 12 $535 +$121 +22%
Will Solana dip to $70 in April? Apr 12 $10 −$1 -10%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? Apr 12 $30 −$28 -95%
Will annual inflation increase by 3.3% in March? Apr 10 $8 +$13 +159%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Apr 08 $30 −$1 -3%
Crude Oil all time high by April 30? Apr 08 $3 −$1 -21%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Apr 08 $40 −$3 -8%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? Apr 08 $20 $0 +0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 08 $50 +$1 +2%
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026? Apr 07 $30 −$4 -12%
Will annual inflation increase by 3.2% in March? Apr 07 $7 −$7 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on April 9? Apr 06 $1 $0 -2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April? Apr 06 $57 −$54 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? Apr 06 $20 −$19 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on April 3? Apr 05 $2 +$8 +423%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on April 10? Apr 04 $10 −$9 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on April 10? Apr 04 $5 −$5 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on April 10? Apr 04 $3 −$3 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 9? Apr 04 $20 −$19 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 9? Apr 04 $10 −$9 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 10? Apr 04 $10 −$9 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on April 10? Apr 04 $5 −$5 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 10? Apr 04 $5 −$5 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on April 3? Apr 03 $8 −$8 -95%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 March 30-April 5? Apr 02 $20 −$19 -93%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 March 30-April 5? Apr 02 $15 −$14 -94%
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 March 30-April 5? Apr 02 $1 −$1 -93%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 March 30-April 5? Apr 02 $2 −$2 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 3? Apr 02 $2 −$2 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 3? Apr 02 $15 −$14 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 3? Apr 02 $13 −$12 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on April 2? Apr 02 $15 +$6 +38%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on April 8? Apr 02 $3 −$3 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 8? Apr 02 $3 −$3 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 8? Apr 02 $2 −$2 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 8? Apr 02 $2 −$2 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 3? Apr 02 $3 −$3 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 4? Apr 02 $1 −$1 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 4? Apr 02 $1 −$1 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 4? Apr 02 $3 −$3 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 4? Apr 02 $3 −$3 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on April 3? Apr 02 $8 −$8 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on April 3? Apr 02 $5 −$4 -93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 56¢ $96 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $48 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $28 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 56¢ $115 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $54 2h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL Yes 4¢ $25 3d
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $11 4d
Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 17¢ $104 5d
Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 17¢ $208 5d
Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 17¢ $62 5d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY Yes 2¢ $2 5d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 2¢ $10 5d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 20 BUY Yes 2¢ $10 5d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 BUY Yes 13¢ $42 5d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 2¢ $5 5d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 BUY Yes 12¢ $16 5d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 20 BUY Yes 2¢ $3 5d
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $16 19d
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $53 20d
Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $15 28d
Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $15 33d
Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $15 43d
Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $176 43d
Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $154 44d
Will Gold have the best performance in 2026? SELL No 70¢ $50 45d
Will Gold have the best performance in 2026? BUY No 55¢ $41 47d
Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 47d
Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $21 47d
Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $61 56d
Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $40 57d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $746.22 · official $744.91 (match) · 220 history records