Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:27:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
64 0x6445…0147 other 24 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$7 (-17%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate56%10W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% −$3
crypto 33% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-21.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -13.7% -21.9% 56% 44% -28.5%
≤30d 18 -13.7% -21.9% 56% 44% -28.5%
≤90d 18 -13.7% -21.9% 56% 44% -28.5%
all 18 -13.7% -21.9% 56% 44% -28.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.9% 44% -28.5%
10% -29.4% 39% -35.4%
15% -36.2% 33% -41.6%
20% -42.5% 22% -47.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 57% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses10 / 8
Open positions6
Markets (closed)18 / 24
History coverage5d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+25%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+25%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Yes 12¢ 14¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -56%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +21%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +43%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +52%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +4%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -77%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +51%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +24%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +40%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 +$3 +163%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 29¢ $0 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 3h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 3h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 4h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 4h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 4h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 12h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 16h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 76¢ $3 19h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 76¢ $2 25h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 26h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 39h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 39h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $2 39h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $2 39h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 14¢ $0 41h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 41h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $2 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $2 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $2 2d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $2 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $2 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.07 · official $6.07 (match) · 37 history records