Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:53:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
64 0x6441…33b7 sports 20 markets active 0h ago coverage 219d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$4,203 (+112%) realized +$4,203 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%7W / 13L
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$188per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$31est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$90
7 days+$43
14 days+$23
30 days+$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 79% +$4,205
sports 21% +$42
other 1% −$19
politics 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-41.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -37.2% -43.2% 45% 45% -4.4%
≤30d 17 -45.2% -50.4% 35% 35% -6.9%
≤90d 17 -45.2% -50.4% 35% 35% -6.9%
all 20 -34.9% -41.1% 35% 35% +92.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.1% 35% +92.0%
10% -46.7% 35% +73.6%
15% -51.9% 25% +56.8%
20% -56.6% 10% +41.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 95% · top 2 96% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt +112% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -39% → late -31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$632 vs −$16 · ×40.43 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×21.77 per $1 lost it wins $21.77
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

219d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4,203
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses7 / 13
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions0
Markets (closed)20 / 20
History coverage219d
Avg bet$188
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 20 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $71 +$33 +46%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 25 $152 +$45 +30%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 25 $133 +$52 +39%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $141 +$39 +28%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 24 $129 −$113 -88%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $95 +$34 +36%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -97%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $3 +$5 +133%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $4 −$3 -92%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Balendra “Balen” Shah be the next Prime Minister of Nepal? Mar 06 $7 −$7 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 11 $2,433 +$4,217 +173%
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? Nov 19 $528 −$12 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 52¢ $57 25m
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 52¢ $10 25m
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 52¢ $6 25m
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 52¢ $30 25m
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $71 1h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 41¢ $197 23h
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? SELL Yes 37¢ $47 23h
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? SELL Yes 37¢ $2 23h
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? SELL Yes 37¢ $5 23h
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? SELL Yes 37¢ $68 23h
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? SELL Yes 37¢ $5 23h
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? SELL Yes 37¢ $4 23h
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? SELL Yes 37¢ $15 23h
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? SELL Yes 37¢ $4 23h
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? SELL Yes 37¢ $21 23h
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? SELL Yes 37¢ $5 23h
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? SELL Yes 37¢ $8 23h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $152 23h
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $133 23h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? SELL Yes 43¢ $40 29h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? SELL Yes 43¢ $5 29h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? SELL Yes 43¢ $19 29h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? SELL Yes 43¢ $2 29h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? SELL Yes 43¢ $50 29h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? SELL Yes 43¢ $1 29h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? SELL Yes 43¢ $4 29h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? SELL Yes 43¢ $1 29h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? SELL Yes 43¢ $5 29h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? SELL Yes 43¢ $3 29h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? SELL Yes 43¢ $4 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 101 history records