Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T11:36:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
64 0x6440…e27f world 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 255d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$12 (+1%) realized +$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate34%12W / 23L
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$72now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$6
14 days+$12
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 61% +$12
other 19% $0
politics 11% $0
sports 6% $0
crypto 2% $0
tech 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.7% -8.9% 40% 0% -6.9%
≤30d 14 +0.8% -8.8% 57% 0% -8.2%
≤90d 14 +0.8% -8.8% 57% 0% -8.2%
all 35 -0.1% -9.6% 34% 0% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -8.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -17.3%
15% -26.1% 0% -25.3%
20% -33.4% 0% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 70% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×7.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.24 per $1 lost it wins $7.24
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

255d coverage
Net worth$72
Realized+$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses12 / 23
Open positions2
Markets (closed)35 / 37
History coverage255d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 81¢ 81¢ $70 $70 +$0 (+0%)
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? No 82¢ 92¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $3 $0 -5%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 24 $58 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 24 $15 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $72 +$5 +7%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $60 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 15 $67 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $61 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $200 +$1 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $60 +$5 +8%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $23 $0 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $121 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 12 $38 $0 +1%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 11 $42 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $21 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with iShowSpeed in 2025? Nov 20 $19 +$1 +3%
TikTok sale announced by October 31? Nov 14 $12 $0 +4%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 24 $12 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 24 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 23 $1 $0 -9%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? Oct 23 $9 $0 +0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 23 $1 $0 -3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 23 $2 $0 -8%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Oct 23 $9 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 22 $19 $0 +0%
Will Anyone’s Legend win LoL Worlds 2025? Oct 21 $39 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 21 $20 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 20 $19 $0 +1%
Will Vlad Gheorghe be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 19 $19 $0 -0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 18 $2 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 18 $18 $0 -1%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 18 $21 $0 -0%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with the President Oct 17 $23 $0 -1%
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in 2025? Oct 17 $22 $0 +0%
Will Juventus win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 14 $23 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Elizabeth Holmes in 2025? Oct 13 $23 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $42 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $28 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $3 20h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 22h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $58 26h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 32¢ $58 27h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $15 28h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $15 32h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 48¢ $18 37h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 48¢ $16 37h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 48¢ $43 37h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 45¢ $72 41h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $5 44h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $32 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $34 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $33 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $35 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $15 9d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $25 9d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $5 9d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $35 9d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $15 9d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $14 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 64¢ $29 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 64¢ $37 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 64¢ $67 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $9 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $33 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $19 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $72.41 · official $72.41 (match) · 125 history records