Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:44:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
64 0x643d…d307 other 238 markets active 1h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$80 (-0%) realized −$80 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%9W / 229L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$228per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$17
14 days−$26
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$43
sports 25% −$23
politics 9% −$7
economics 7% −$6
culture 6% −$7
world 4% −$1
crypto 3% −$3
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 69 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 170 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 238 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$80
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses9 / 229
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)238 / 238
History coverage134d
Avg bet$228
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 238 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $235 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $653 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $209 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $709 −$1 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $16 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $194 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $150 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 15 $340 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $537 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $288 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $124 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $308 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $228 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $278 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $530 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $221 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $725 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 13 $540 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $374 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $148 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $441 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $216 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $564 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $654 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $626 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $254 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $567 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $228 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $63 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $482 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $224 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 08 $151 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $418 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 08 $112 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $362 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 07 $677 −$2 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 06 $366 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $312 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $697 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $229 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $180 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $176 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $144 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $211 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $260 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $157 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $413 −$2 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 03 $147 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 02 $625 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $59 1h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $60 2h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $60 7h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $60 8h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $60 10h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $60 11h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $60 14h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $60 16h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $16 17h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $16 18h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $60 23h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $60 25h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $60 38h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $60 40h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $60 41h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $60 43h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $60 47h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $60 2d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $60 2d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $61 2d
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $61 2d
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $61 2d
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $61 2d
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $61 2d
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $61 3d
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $61 3d
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $61 3d
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $61 3d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $61 3d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $61 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1352 history records