Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T18:53:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
64 0x643d…a4cd other 70 markets active 0h ago coverage 453d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate41%29W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$1
world 36% $0
crypto 8% −$1
politics 7% $0
sports 4% $0
tech 2% $0
economics 1% $0
culture 0% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +1.1% -8.5% 50% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 16 -1.2% -10.6% 19% 6% -9.5%
≤90d 16 -1.2% -10.6% 19% 6% -9.5%
all 70 -1.8% -11.1% 41% 3% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 3% -9.7%
10% -19.7% 1% -18.3%
15% -27.4% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

453d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses29 / 41
Open positions0
Markets (closed)70 / 70
History coverage453d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 70 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $40 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $20 $0 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 03 $5 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $40 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $9 $0 -4%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 01 $61 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 31 $44 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 30 $20 +$1 +6%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $2 −$1 -37%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $2 $0 -12%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 29 $44 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 28 $39 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 28 $78 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 27 $48 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $48 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 25 $22 $0 -2%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Dec 29 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 28 $6 +$1 +12%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 28 $32 $0 +0%
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -51%
US military action against Iran before July? Jun 21 $5 $0 -4%
Will Alexander Zverev win Wimbledon 2025? Jun 21 $6 $0 +0%
Will Taylor Fritz win Wimbledon 2025? Jun 21 $6 $0 +0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 20 $6 $0 -0%
Will Botafogo RJ win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 20 $6 $0 -2%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $13 $0 +0%
No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $6 $0 +1%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 09 $6 $0 +0%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jun 05 $6 $0 +0%
Will the ECB announce no change at the June meeting? Jun 03 $7 $0 +2%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 100% and 150% on August Jun 03 $6 $0 +0%
Will Frank McCourt buy TikTok? Jun 02 $7 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $120 in May? Jun 01 $1 $0 -7%
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 01 $5 $0 +0%
XRP above $2.70 on May 30? May 31 $2 −$1 -33%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 30 $2 $0 +1%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in May? May 28 $35 $0 +0%
Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the May 27 $35 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 225–249 times May 23–30? May 27 $32 $0 +1%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 27 $5 $0 -1%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? May 26 $3 $0 -7%
Will Tommy Paul win the 2025 French Open? May 26 $33 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? May 26 $31 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before June? May 25 $32 $0 +1%
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2025 French Open? May 25 $35 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the Eastern Conference? May 25 $40 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? May 24 $40 $0 -0%
Will the Kolkata Knight Riders win the 2025 Indian Premier League? May 22 $40 $0 +1%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? May 10 $40 −$2 -5%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the Western Conference? May 09 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $40 2m
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $40 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $5 8h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $15 10h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $20 11h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 33¢ $5 20d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 33¢ $4 20d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 20d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $40 21d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $40 21d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 52¢ $9 21d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 54¢ $9 21d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $16 22d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $17 22d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $44 22d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $44 22d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $44 23d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $44 23d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 92¢ $1 23d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 93¢ $17 23d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 89¢ $9 23d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 89¢ $12 23d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes $1 24d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes $2 24d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes $1 25d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $2 25d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 99¢ $44 25d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 99¢ $25 25d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 99¢ $19 25d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $7 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.00 · official $4.00 (match) · 208 history records