Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:23:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
64 0x643a…a2a8 other 76 markets active 2h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$199 (+7%) realized +$192 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%21W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day15.0pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$651now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$114
7 days+$146
14 days+$168
30 days+$168
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% +$337
sports 23% −$62
crypto 4% −$56
world 3% −$43
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-22.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -3.4% -12.6% 39% 39% +2.1%
≤30d 55 -14.5% -22.6% 38% 38% -1.8%
≤90d 55 -14.5% -22.6% 38% 38% -1.8%
all 55 -14.5% -22.6% 38% 38% -1.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.6% 38% -1.8%
10% -30.0% 38% -11.2%
15% -36.8% 35% -19.7%
20% -43.0% 25% -27.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$20 · ×2.02 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$651
Realized+$192
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses21 / 34
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions21
Markets (closed)55 / 76
History coverage10d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day15.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $150 $149 −$1 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 49¢ 50¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+1%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 54¢ 76¢ $30 $42 +$12 (+42%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 50¢ 50¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 34¢ $30 $34 +$4 (+12%)
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 49¢ 48¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 44¢ 42¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-4%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Yes 41¢ 38¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-6%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Yes 38¢ 38¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Yes 34¢ 34¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-5%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 78¢ $14 $17 +$3 (+19%)
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 25¢ 6¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-78%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $20 +$46 +226%
Spread: Spain (-5.5) Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $138 +$83 +60%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $15 +$22 +145%
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $51 −$15 -30%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $3 −$1 -39%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $130 +$109 +84%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $31 +$79 +259%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $41 −$15 -36%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $36 −$20 -56%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $15 −$1 -7%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $7 +$10 +139%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 18 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -96%
Panama to score first vs. Ghana? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $16 −$8 -46%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $69 +$50 +73%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $41 −$40 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $26 +$19 +72%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 −$16 -79%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $18 −$15 -80%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $8 +$13 +158%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $64 +$31 +50%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $7 +$4 +50%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $36 −$22 -62%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $63 +$30 +47%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 +$12 +39%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $66 −$40 -60%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$9 +177%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$20 -67%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $147 +$43 +29%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $18 −$18 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $14 −$14 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -98%
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 0 Türkiye? Jun 14 $51 +$39 +77%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $58 +$71 +124%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 0 Türkiye? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $59 −$31 -53%
Türkiye to score first vs. Australia? Jun 14 $32 −$32 -99%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 1 Scotland? Jun 14 $54 +$12 +23%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $40 +$23 +57%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $86 +$34 +40%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$38 -76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 44¢ $15 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $67 9h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $20 10h
Spread: Spain (-5.5) BUY Spain 40¢ $20 16h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 34¢ $20 23h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $41 27h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $20 27h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 27h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $15 27h
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $15 27h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $220 27h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 38¢ $20 27h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 27h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 27h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 41¢ $31 27h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 49¢ $51 27h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 27h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 50¢ $41 27h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 100¢ $37 27h
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 45¢ $35 28h
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 49¢ $30 28h
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 32¢ $20 28h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 28h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 28h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $15 28h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 40¢ $15 28h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $110 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 18¢ $6 3d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Qatar 49¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $651.06 · official $651.07 (match) · 165 history records