Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T16:12:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

64
0x6435…e868
other · 150 markets active 1h ago
3.5score
+$416 +4%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$2,300 · open −$47
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$825
Realized+$2,300
Unrealized−$47
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses31 / 89
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions30
Markets (closed)120 / 150
History coverage138d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit45%
Chart Positions 30 History 120 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$308
7 days+$413
14 days+$483
30 days+$315
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? No 96¢ 96¢ $192 $192 −$0 (-0%)
Algeria leading at halftime? No 94¢ 90¢ $188 $181 −$7 (-4%)
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Yes 18¢ 21¢ $70 $83 +$13 (+18%)
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Yes 29¢ 16¢ $88 $50 −$38 (-43%)
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Yes 16¢ 15¢ $35 $33 −$2 (-6%)
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? No 86¢ 84¢ $32 $31 −$1 (-3%)
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Yes 15¢ 13¢ $30 $26 −$4 (-13%)
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $27 $25 −$2 (-8%)
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $27 $22 −$5 (-17%)
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 11¢ $24 $22 −$2 (-9%)
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Yes 13¢ 11¢ $23 $19 −$4 (-17%)
Metamask FDV above $4B one day after launch? Yes 3¢ 6¢ $8 $19 +$10 (+124%)
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $17 $15 −$3 (-16%)
Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $10 $13 +$2 (+22%)
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? No 94¢ 92¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-10%)
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Yes 15¢ 12¢ $7 $6 −$2 (-21%)
Uzbekistan leading at halftime? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $6 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 2 Japan? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-16%)
Exact Score: Sweden 0 - 0 Tunisia? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $251 +$250 +100%
Exact Score: Australia 3 - 0 Türkiye? Jun 14 $1 $0 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 14 $13 +$87 +650%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $3 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Morocco? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Qatar 2 - 0 Switzerland? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Qatar 3 - 0 Switzerland? Jun 13 $0 $0 -97%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 13 $25 −$25 -98%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $29 −$28 -98%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? Jun 13 $10 −$9 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 13 $4 +$46 +1290%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $343 +$15 +4%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $8 +$42 +510%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $231 +$7 +3%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $184 +$16 +8%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $203 −$3 -2%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 12 $11 −$11 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $32 −$31 -97%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $6 −$6 -97%
Paraguay leading at halftime? Jun 12 $41 −$40 -98%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 12 $11 −$11 -97%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $3 +$20 +786%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 2 Czechia? Jun 12 $188 +$12 +6%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 0 Czechia? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $33 +$167 +510%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $179 +$21 +12%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $170 +$10 +6%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $88 +$8 +10%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 1 Czechia? Jun 11 $12 −$12 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 3 South Africa? Jun 11 $0 $0 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 2 South Africa? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $6 −$6 -97%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 0 Czechia? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 10 $6 −$6 -97%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? Jun 10 $33 −$32 -98%
Will Iceland win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $14 −$13 -97%
Will Honduras win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $8 −$8 -97%
Will Chile win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $12 −$12 -97%
Will Curaçao vs. Aruba end in a draw? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Venezuela vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 06 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Montenegro win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $11 −$10 -98%
Will Hong Kong SAR vs. Mongolia end in a draw? Jun 05 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Puerto Rico vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 05 $7 −$7 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
economics 41% +$1,756
other 34% +$1
crypto 13% +$445
sports 13% +$51
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 32m
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 46m
Exact Score: Sweden 0 - 1 Tunisia? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: Sweden 0 - 0 Tunisia? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: Sweden 0 - 1 Tunisia? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Sweden 0 - 0 Tunisia? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Sweden 0 - 0 Tunisia? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 13¢ $9 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 2h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 3h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 15¢ $30 4h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 4h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 5h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 5h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? BUY Yes 17¢ $4 6h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 6h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 6h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 7h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 7h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 9h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 9h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 9h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 10h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 10h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 10h
Exact Score: Australia 3 - 0 Türkiye? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 12h
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 13h
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)+56.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 +23.1% +11.3% 30% 16% +7.6%
≤30d 68 -9.4% -18.0% 22% 13% -0.0%
≤90d 88 -16.0% -24.0% 20% 14% -6.4%
all 120 +73.2% +56.7% 26% 20% +3.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +56.7% 20% +3.1%
10% +41.7% 18% -6.8%
15% +28.1% 18% -15.8%
20% +15.5% 18% -24.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $825.33 · official $825.34 (match) · 511 history records