Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T01:53:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
64 0x6434…72b6 crypto 415 markets active 1h ago coverage 243d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,981 (-19%) realized −$2,095 · open +$114
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate24%99W / 312L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day8.9pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$185now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$26
7 days−$14
14 days−$161
30 days−$161
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 62% −$1,352
other 20% −$747
world 7% +$45
politics 6% +$346
sports 4% −$184
finance 1% +$51
economics 0% −$29
culture 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-37.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 +6.2% -3.9% 22% 19% -15.1%
≤30d 68 -16.8% -24.7% 18% 15% -43.8%
≤90d 69 -16.4% -24.4% 19% 16% -25.1%
all 411 -31.3% -37.9% 24% 19% -26.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.9% 19% -26.9%
10% -43.8% 17% -33.9%
15% -49.2% 15% -40.3%
20% -54.2% 12% -46.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -35% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$15 · ×1.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

243d coverage
Net worth$185
Realized−$2,095
Unrealized+$114
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses99 / 312
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions4
Markets (closed)411 / 415
History coverage243d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day8.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 411 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals Yes 6¢ 100¢ $7 $110 +$103 (+1449%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 40¢ 100¢ $21 $52 +$31 (+149%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $41 $20 −$21 (-52%)
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Norway 10¢ 18¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+79%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 39 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $16 −$14 -87%
Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ goals Jun 23 $7 −$7 -97%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 22 $22 −$8 -36%
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $3 $0 +1%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 6.5 Jun 22 $8 −$8 -100%
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals Jun 22 $7 +$33 +455%
Lionel Messi: 3+ goals Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -97%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 22 $7 +$6 +85%
Argentina vs. Austria: Austria O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $8 −$8 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $7 −$7 -97%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 21 $3 +$11 +367%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 21 $6 −$6 -97%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 21 $2 −$2 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 19 $23 −$23 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $4 −$4 -97%
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Jun 18 $10 +$21 +206%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 18 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $9 −$9 -97%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 7.5 Jun 18 $4 −$4 -97%
Spread: Qatar (-1.5) Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $20 +$32 +158%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $4 +$25 +603%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Spread: Panama (-1.5) Jun 17 $7 −$7 -99%
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $2 +$23 +1115%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 17 $8 −$8 -97%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Spread: IR Iran (-2.5) Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: Egypt (-2.5) Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +56%
Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Dailon Livramento: 1+ goals Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Spread: Cabo Verde (-1.5) Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -97%
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $5 +$10 +190%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals BUY Yes 5¢ $3 52m
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals BUY Yes 5¢ $0 57m
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals BUY Yes 5¢ $0 1h
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals BUY Yes 9¢ $4 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 64¢ $11 1h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 10¢ $2 1h
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 3¢ $2 1h
Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 1¢ $2 1h
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 19¢ $7 1h
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 19¢ $2 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 40¢ $28 2h
Spread: France (-2.5) SELL Iraq 56¢ $14 3h
Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 16¢ $5 4h
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 SELL Under 35¢ $4 4h
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 33¢ $7 4h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Iraq 44¢ $22 4h
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 BUY Under 34¢ $3 4h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 9¢ $4 4h
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $40 6h
Lionel Messi: 3+ goals BUY Yes 1¢ $1 6h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 7h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $12 8h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 1¢ $3 8h
Argentina vs. Austria: Austria O/U 1.5 BUY Over 14¢ $3 8h
Argentina vs. Austria: Austria O/U 1.5 BUY Over 14¢ $0 8h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 1¢ $0 8h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 40¢ $0 8h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 40¢ $8 8h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 1¢ $1 8h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 1¢ $2 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $184.98 · official $184.75 (match) · 2554 history records