Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:46:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
64 0x6434…fce6 other 115 markets active 2h ago coverage 124d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$572 (-1%) realized −$572 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate19%22W / 92L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$940per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$553now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$17
14 days−$19
30 days−$826
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$32
politics 33% −$41
sports 15% −$448
world 3% −$55
culture 2% −$3
crypto 1% +$1
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 22 -4.6% -13.7% 9% 0% -12.0%
≤90d 72 -14.1% -22.2% 7% 1% -11.2%
all 114 +1.1% -8.5% 19% 15% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 15% -10.0%
10% -17.3% 15% -18.6%
15% -25.3% 13% -26.5%
20% -32.6% 10% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,049) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +5% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$17 · ×2.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$553
Realized−$572
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses22 / 92
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)114 / 115
History coverage124d
Avg bet$940
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 114 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $552 $553 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $453 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $2,600 −$3 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $863 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $1,819 −$2 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $2,932 −$3 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $5,576 −$6 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $820 −$1 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $873 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $1,259 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $4,959 −$5 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 04 $891 −$1 -0%
Will Solana reach $110 in May? Jun 04 $87 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in May? Jun 04 $165 $0 +0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 31 $502 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $2,711 −$3 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $657 −$1 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 29 $605 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $242 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $206 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $208 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $812 −$1 -0%
Canadiens vs. Sabres May 22 $793 −$793 -100%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $1,033 −$2 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $3,123 −$4 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 05 $914 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 27 $1,735 −$2 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 22 $1,032 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $1,028 −$1 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $2,472 −$1 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $1,047 −$1 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $1,762 −$2 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $1,128 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $1,049 −$1 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $1,048 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $2,930 −$3 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $913 −$1 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $808 −$1 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $1,806 −$2 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $908 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 12 $870 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 12 $864 −$1 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 11 $919 −$1 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 11 $308 −$28 -9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 11 $336 $0 +0%
Will the US x Iran ceasefire be extended by April 14, 2026? Apr 10 $44 −$23 -52%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 07 $1,006 −$1 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 05 $872 −$1 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 04 $833 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 03 $3,668 −$4 -0%
EdgeX FDV above $10B one day after launch? Apr 02 $50 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $452 1h
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $453 2h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $454 20h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $454 22h
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $553 2d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $861 4d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $863 4d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $863 5d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $864 5d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $862 5d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $863 6d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $863 6d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $864 6d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $813 7d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $814 7d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $863 12d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $864 12d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $819 12d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $820 12d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $871 13d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $873 13d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $630 14d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $630 14d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $738 14d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $738 14d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $889 14d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $891 15d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $502 18d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $502 19d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $662 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $552.77 · official $552.77 (match) · 387 history records