Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:57:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
64 0x6432…36fe sports 912 markets active 1h ago coverage 38d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 38d only
✗ bot/MM pace (61 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$254 (+5%) realized +$264 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate54%488W / 419L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day60.8pace
Fees−$38est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days−$92
14 days−$47
30 days−$78
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% +$166
other 23% +$32
crypto 22% −$205
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (61 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 96 -6.0% -15.0% 50% 49% -20.0%
≤30d 711 +3.6% -6.3% 54% 52% -11.2%
≤90d 907 +4.2% -5.7% 54% 52% -9.5%
all 907 +4.2% -5.7% 54% 52% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover60.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.7% 52% -9.5%
10% ← realistic here -14.8% 49% -18.2%
15% -23.0% 47% -26.1%
20% -30.5% 37% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized+$264
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses488 / 419
Est. fees paid−$38
Open positions4
Markets (closed)907 / 912
History coverage38d ⚠
Avg bet$6
Trades / day60.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 907 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: New York Liberty (-9.5) New York Liberty 52¢ 52¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: New York Liberty (-10.5) New York Liberty 47¢ 46¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 64¢ 57¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-10%)
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 50¢ 6¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-88%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $2 +$3 +116%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 +$11 +107%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $10 +$7 +73%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 +$10 +95%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 +$9 +84%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $10 +$11 +103%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 173.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $3 $0 +13%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $13 −$9 -75%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $2 +$2 +74%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $10 +$12 +119%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $6 +$5 +90%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $10 +$8 +78%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $22 −$9 -41%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $24 +$4 +15%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $3 +$1 +40%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +58%
Scotland leading at halftime? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $2 +$2 +132%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $5 +$4 +81%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$7 +134%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $9 +$7 +85%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 169.5 Jun 14 $10 +$10 +95%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $22 +$6 +29%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 +$11 +116%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 +$13 +129%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 14 $12 +$15 +129%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $24 +$40 +170%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $1 $0 +40%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 +$26 +50%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: New York Liberty (-10.5) BUY New York Liberty 47¢ $10 41m
Spread: New York Liberty (-9.5) BUY New York Liberty 52¢ $10 3h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 47¢ $10 7h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $10 9h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 57¢ $15 23h
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY No 51¢ $10 24h
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 53¢ $10 25h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $10 26h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 56¢ $10 26h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 57¢ $6 33h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 48¢ $10 34h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $10 36h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $10 37h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $2 2d
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 173.5 BUY Over 48¢ $10 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Cabo Verde 100¢ $22 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 44¢ $10 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $10 2d
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 64¢ $8 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 55¢ $10 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 48¢ $10 3d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 52¢ $10 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $24 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $29 3d
Scotland leading at halftime? BUY No 51¢ $10 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $10 4d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $3 4d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $6 4d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $5 4d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 50¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.16 · official $27.80 (match) · 3500 history records