Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:13:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
64 0x642f…5933 crypto 238 markets active 0h ago coverage 46d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$22 (+0%) realized −$1 · open +$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate34%81W / 156L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day12.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$297
7 days−$376
14 days−$473
30 days−$1,031
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$860
other 3% −$79
sports 0% +$38
politics 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-24.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 74 -2.6% -11.9% 41% 41% -17.2%
≤30d 187 -35.1% -41.3% 30% 29% -25.5%
≤90d 237 -16.1% -24.1% 34% 32% -22.9%
all 237 -16.1% -24.1% 34% 32% -22.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.1% 32% -22.9%
10% -31.4% 30% -30.3%
15% -38.0% 27% -37.1%
20% -44.1% 25% -43.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$20 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$23
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses81 / 156
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)237 / 238
History coverage46d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day12.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 237 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Down 10¢ 56¢ $5 $28 +$23 (+465%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $67 −$67 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $63 −$63 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $63 −$60 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $134 −$10 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $126 −$126 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $208 −$49 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $93 +$98 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $155 +$55 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $126 −$109 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $187 −$187 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $124 −$124 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $125 −$57 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $248 +$140 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $125 −$125 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $62 +$48 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $125 +$113 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $24 −$23 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $125 +$95 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $99 +$74 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $74 −$74 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $125 +$215 +171%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $63 −$63 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 15 $62 −$62 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $125 −$60 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $124 +$79 +64%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $206 −$77 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $88 +$74 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $47 −$45 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $73 +$57 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $28 −$11 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$111 +747%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$19 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $33 −$18 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $14 +$8 +58%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 −$2 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$21 +146%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $22 +$38 +175%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $16 +$9 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $36 +$5 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $13 −$11 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $11 +$25 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$28 +443%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $62 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $63 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $63 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $5 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $5 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $195 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $61 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $62 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $63 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $63 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $192 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $31 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $62 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $32 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $32 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $21 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Down 87¢ $159 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $61 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $62 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $63 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $32 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Down 10¢ $10 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $32 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Down 23¢ $24 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $32 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Up 84¢ $187 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $62 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $62 47m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.25 · official $29.75 · 738 history records