Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:20:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
64 0x642e…00bb crypto 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$421 (+10%) realized +$421 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate75%3W / 1L
Drawdown97%max
Avg bet$1,102per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% +$434
other 15% +$403
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)+9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +21.4% +9.8% 75% 75% +7.8%
≤30d 4 +21.4% +9.8% 75% 75% +7.8%
≤90d 4 +21.4% +9.8% 75% 75% +7.8%
all 4 +21.4% +9.8% 75% 75% +7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.8% 75% +7.8%
10% -0.7% 75% -2.5%
15% -10.3% 75% -11.9%
20% -19.1% 75% -20.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 80% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$664 vs −$1,155 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.73 per $1 lost it wins $1.73
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$421
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses3 / 1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)4 / 4
History coverage1d
Avg bet$1,102
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown97%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 4 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 23 $1,293 +$799 +62%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 23 $1,187 −$1,155 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 23 $1,282 +$790 +62%
BNB Up or Down - June 23, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 23 $648 +$403 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1,293 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1,187 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1,282 3h
BNB Up or Down - June 23, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $648 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 7 history records