Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:33:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
64 0x642c…145e other 160 markets active 1h ago coverage 98d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$50 (-0%) realized −$50 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate15%24W / 135L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$136per market
Trades / day6.7pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$20
14 days−$30
30 days−$49
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 29% −$18
other 26% −$22
sports 20% −$19
crypto 9% −$5
world 4% −$2
finance 4% −$1
economics 4% −$2
culture 3% −$7
tech 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -0.6% -10.1% 10% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 68 -0.7% -10.2% 7% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 152 -0.4% -9.9% 15% 0% -9.8%
all 159 -0.4% -9.9% 15% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized−$50
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses24 / 135
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)159 / 160
History coverage98d
Avg bet$136
Trades / day6.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 159 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 91¢ 90¢ $56 $56 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $216 −$1 -0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $166 −$1 -1%
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 15 $88 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $44 $0 -1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 14 $55 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $629 −$1 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $236 −$4 -2%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $57 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 12 $112 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $51 $0 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 12 $175 −$3 -2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Jun 11 $49 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $51 $0 -0%
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $52 $0 -0%
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $66 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 10 $409 −$3 -1%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $477 −$1 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 10 $49 $0 -0%
Will Bart Verbruggen record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA Wor Jun 10 $45 −$1 -2%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $418 −$3 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $52 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 07 $57 +$1 +1%
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 07 $41 −$1 -2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Jun 06 $39 $0 -1%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 06 $101 −$1 -1%
Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 06 $61 −$3 -5%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $89 $0 -0%
Will Germany advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 05 $47 $0 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $483 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $32 −$1 -2%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $422 $0 -0%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $45 −$1 -1%
Will Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? Jun 03 $53 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? Jun 02 $61 −$1 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 02 $48 −$1 -1%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $158 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $391 −$1 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $119 $0 -0%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $50 −$1 -3%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $195 −$1 -1%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $316 −$1 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 30 $248 −$1 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $105 $0 -0%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 29 $62 $0 +1%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? May 29 $63 $0 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 28 $51 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 28 $105 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $99 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? May 27 $44 $0 -0%
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 26 $40 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $56 1h
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 93¢ $59 1h
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 93¢ $59 9h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $48 10h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $41 14h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $7 14h
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $16 15h
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $16 22h
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $44 22h
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $44 27h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 97¢ $55 28h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 96¢ $55 36h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $63 36h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $64 40h
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $50 41h
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $50 46h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $54 47h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $20 2d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $34 2d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 89¢ $32 2d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 91¢ $28 2d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 91¢ $5 2d
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $56 2d
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $57 2d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $54 2d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $54 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $51 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $51 3d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 94¢ $62 3d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 96¢ $63 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.87 · official $55.87 (match) · 693 history records