Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:31:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
64 0x642a…7659 crypto 194 markets active 2d ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate53%102W / 92L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day35.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$34
7 days−$56
14 days−$37
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 120 -11.3% -19.7% 46% 44% -20.9%
≤30d 194 -6.0% -15.0% 53% 49% -14.5%
≤90d 194 -6.0% -15.0% 53% 49% -14.5%
all 194 -6.0% -15.0% 53% 49% -14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.0% 49% -14.5%
10% ← realistic here -23.1% 41% -22.6%
15% -30.5% 31% -30.1%
20% -37.3% 24% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses102 / 92
Open positions0
Markets (closed)194 / 194
History coverage9d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day35.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 194 Trades
no open positions (50 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$6 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $14 +$3 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $11 +$8 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$5 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$5 +187%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$5 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$5 +153%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 15¢ $1 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $3 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $10 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $11 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Down 80¢ $17 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $10 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 56¢ $10 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $10 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Up 41¢ $17 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $14 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $10 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $13 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $0 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $3 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Up 47¢ $10 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 43¢ $19 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $11 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Down 76¢ $6 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $3 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Down 22¢ $3 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $3 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $4 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $3 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $6 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $3 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 355 history records