Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:36:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
64 0x6428…c1b6 world 104 markets active 1h ago coverage 351d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized −$1 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate28%29W / 73L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 29% +$1
other 28% +$3
politics 14% +$1
sports 13% −$2
economics 6% −$1
weather 4% +$1
finance 3% +$1
crypto 2% −$1
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 26 -0.8% -10.2% 35% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 78 +0.5% -9.1% 28% 3% -9.5%
all 102 +0.2% -9.3% 28% 2% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 2% -9.5%
10% -18.0% 1% -18.2%
15% -25.9% 1% -26.1%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

351d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses29 / 73
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)102 / 104
History coverage351d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 102 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Yes 47¢ 50¢ $42 $44 +$2 (+5%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 91¢ 85¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 24 $42 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $24 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $42 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $46 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $41 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $41 +$1 +2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $174 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $52 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $86 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $40 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 10 $43 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $41 −$1 -1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $41 +$1 +2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 08 $41 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 08 $1 $0 -17%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $41 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $84 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $131 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? Jun 02 $1 $0 -9%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $44 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 30 $41 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $122 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 28 $64 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 28 $41 +$1 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $44 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 25 $43 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 24 $40 −$1 -2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 23 $28 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 23 $3 +$1 +21%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 23 $39 $0 +0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 20 $2 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 20 $39 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $41 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 14 $41 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $41 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 26 $36 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $147 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 25 $114 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 22 $37 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $74 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $14 −$2 -12%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 21 $11 $0 -2%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $200 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $80 $0 -0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 20 $43 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $20 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 18 $39 $0 -1%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 18 $38 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 17 $114 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 17 $163 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $42 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $3 4h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $39 4h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $42 7h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $13 26h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $12 26h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $9 29h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $15 29h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $42 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $42 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $46 7d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $46 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $41 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $41 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $42 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $41 9d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $45 10d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $45 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $41 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $19 11d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $23 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $45 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 78¢ $45 11d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $11 12d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $9 12d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 12d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 13d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $4 13d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 55¢ $41 13d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 55¢ $41 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.63 · official $43.16 · 363 history records