Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:27:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
64 0x6426…74bb world 93 markets active 1h ago coverage 525d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$16 (-0%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate33%30W / 62L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$2
14 days+$3
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% +$1
politics 23% −$1
other 19% −$7
sports 13% −$10
economics 2% $0
tech 1% $0
finance 1% −$1
crypto 1% $0
culture 1% $0
weather 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.6% -10.1% 17% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 30 -0.9% -10.4% 30% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 74 -0.9% -10.4% 26% 0% -9.6%
all 92 -4.3% -13.4% 33% 3% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 3% -10.0%
10% -21.7% 1% -18.6%
15% -29.3% 1% -26.4%
20% -36.2% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

525d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses30 / 62
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)92 / 93
History coverage525d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 92 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 91¢ 92¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $33 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 16 $28 $0 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $47 $0 +1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $33 $0 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $15 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $77 −$1 -2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 11 $38 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 09 $34 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 09 $70 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $37 +$1 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 08 $31 +$3 +9%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $102 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $62 +$1 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $168 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $58 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 05 $80 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 30 $43 −$1 -2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 30 $32 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 30 $35 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $5 −$1 -14%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $5 −$1 -18%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 27 $36 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $98 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 26 $19 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 26 $33 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 24 $106 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 21 $66 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 21 $34 −$1 -4%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 20 $34 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $1 $0 +3%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $37 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 14 $2 $0 -22%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $33 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $33 $0 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 25 $37 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $34 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $39 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $68 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $33 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 22 $1 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $34 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $34 $0 +0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 21 $34 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 20 $3 $0 -13%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $35 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 13 $113 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 84¢ $33 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 84¢ $33 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $33 6h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $36 8h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 45h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 18¢ $10 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 18¢ $4 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 17¢ $13 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $12 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $14 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $7 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 68¢ $33 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 85¢ $33 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 86¢ $34 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 22¢ $11 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 22¢ $4 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 22¢ $15 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 63¢ $37 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 65¢ $38 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 36¢ $39 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 36¢ $39 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $27 6d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $27 6d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $22 7d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $16 7d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $38 7d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 35¢ $3 7d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 35¢ $11 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.66 · official $3.66 (match) · 352 history records