Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:29:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

64
0x6425…a4e2
other · 107 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$367 -8%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$367 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$367
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses75 / 32
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)107 / 107
History coverage51d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit46%
Chart Positions 0 History 107 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days−$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +81%
GTA VI released before June 2026? May 15 $1 −$1 -58%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 15 $10 −$4 -40%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 15 $105 −$24 -23%
Will Powell say "Luck" during April press conference? May 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Powell say "War" during April press conference? May 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during April press c May 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Powell say "No Comment" during April press conference? May 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Powell say "Tariff inflation" during April press conference? May 07 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during April press conference? May 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump say "President Xi" during events with Brazilian president? May 07 $15 +$7 +46%
Will Trump say "Six Seven" during events with Brazilian president? May 07 $1 −$1 -78%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before Kevin Warsh is confirmed Apr 30 $1 $0 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Apr 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Apr 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Apr 27 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Apr 27 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Apr 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Apr 27 $1 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Apr 27 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Apr 27 $5 −$1 -16%
XRP Up or Down - April 24, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Apr 25 $3 −$3 -100%
BNB Up or Down - April 24, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Apr 24 $10 +$3 +28%
BNB Up or Down - April 24, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Apr 24 $10 $0 +4%
BNB Up or Down - April 24, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Apr 24 $10 +$2 +21%
BNB Up or Down - April 24, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Apr 24 $10 +$2 +17%
BNB Up or Down - April 24, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Apr 24 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - April 24, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Apr 24 $168 +$8 +5%
BNB Up or Down - April 24, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Apr 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 24, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Apr 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Apr 24 $105 −$105 -100%
BNB Up or Down - April 24, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Apr 24 $110 +$2 +2%
BNB Up or Down - April 24, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Apr 24 $100 +$1 +1%
BNB Up or Down - April 24, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Apr 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Apr 24 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Apr 24 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Apr 24 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - April 24, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Apr 24 $100 +$1 +1%
BNB Up or Down - April 24, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Apr 24 $100 +$1 +1%
BNB Up or Down - April 24, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Apr 24 $100 +$7 +8%
BNB Up or Down - April 24, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Apr 24 $10 $0 +2%
BNB Up or Down - April 24, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Apr 24 $100 +$1 +1%
BNB Up or Down - April 24, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Apr 24 $100 +$1 +1%
BNB Up or Down - April 24, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Apr 24 $110 +$1 +1%
BNB Up or Down - April 24, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Apr 24 $100 +$1 +1%
BNB Up or Down - April 24, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Apr 24 $100 +$3 +3%
BNB Up or Down - April 24, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Apr 24 $67 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 62% +$16
crypto 37% −$374
politics 1% +$2
sports 0% −$7
economics 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 74¢ $1 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 1h
GTA VI released before June 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 27d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 29¢ $6 27d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $81 27d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $52 32d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 35d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $21 35d
Will Trump say "President Xi" during events with Brazilian president? SELL No 97¢ $22 35d
Will Trump say "Six Seven" during events with Brazilian president? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 35d
Will Trump say "President Xi" during events with Brazilian president? BUY No 66¢ $15 35d
Will Trump say "Six Seven" during events with Brazilian president? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 35d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 45¢ $10 35d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 35d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before Kevin Warsh is confirmed SELL Yes 1¢ $1 42d
Will Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during April press conference? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 43d
Will Powell say "Tariff inflation" during April press conference? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 43d
GTA VI released before June 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 43d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before Kevin Warsh is confirmed BUY Yes 1¢ $1 43d
Will Powell say "Tariff inflation" during April press conference? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 43d
Will Powell say "Tariff inflation" during April press conference? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 43d
Will Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during April press conference? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 43d
Will Powell say "No Comment" during April press conference? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 43d
Will Powell say "Luck" during April press conference? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 43d
Will Powell say "War" during April press conference? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 43d
Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during April press c BUY Yes 0¢ $1 43d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $10 44d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-23.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +2.1% -7.7% 67% 67% +10.1%
≤30d 6 -19.1% -26.8% 33% 33% -30.3%
≤90d 107 -15.3% -23.4% 70% 20% -17.1%
all 107 -15.3% -23.4% 70% 20% -17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.4% 20% -17.1%
10% -30.7% 11% -25.1%
15% -37.4% 6% -32.3%
20% -43.5% 2% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 228 history records