Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:05:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
64 0x6423…1474 crypto 1599 markets active 0h ago coverage 64d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 63d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$282 (-1%) realized −$282 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate73%1164W / 435L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day30.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days−$22
14 days−$127
30 days−$325
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,084
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 135 +2.0% -7.7% 80% 79% -12.2%
≤30d 1295 -1.7% -11.1% 72% 68% -12.6%
≤90d 1599 -2.4% -11.7% 73% 67% -14.3%
all 1599 -2.4% -11.7% 73% 67% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.7% 67% -14.3%
10% ← realistic here -20.1% 31% -22.5%
15% -27.8% 12% -30.0%
20% -34.9% 7% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$10 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$282
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses1164 / 435
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1599 / 1599
History coverage64d ⚠
Avg bet$13
Trades / day30.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1599 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +15%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +16%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +18%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +23%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$3 -36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +22%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +20%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +19%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +20%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +25%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +25%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 2PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET Jun 16 $12 +$3 +21%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +34%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +31%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +29%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +25%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$1 +18%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$2 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +19%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$2 +26%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +29%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +18%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +34%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +30%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +18%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +18%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET Jun 15 $12 +$3 +23%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +33%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 10PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $4 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $4 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $4 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $4 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $4 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $4 6h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $4 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $4 6h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $4 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $4 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $4 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $4 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $4 8h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $4 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $4 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $4 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $4 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $4 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $4 10h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $4 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $4 13h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 2PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $4 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $8 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $4 16h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $4 17h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $4 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $4 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $4 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records