Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:23:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
64 0x6423…591e world 112 markets active 1h ago coverage 290d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate26%28W / 79L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$123per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$13
14 days−$10
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% −$27
other 18% +$3
sports 16% −$5
politics 13% +$1
crypto 4% +$7
economics 3% $0
finance 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +0.1% -9.4% 18% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 33 -0.6% -10.1% 24% 6% -10.1%
≤90d 77 -1.0% -10.4% 32% 4% -9.7%
all 107 -0.7% -10.1% 26% 3% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 3% -9.6%
10% -18.7% 2% -18.3%
15% -26.6% 2% -26.2%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

290d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses28 / 79
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions5
Markets (closed)107 / 112
History coverage290d
Avg bet$123
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 107 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 95¢ 95¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 7¢ 4¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-36%)
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-15%)
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-46%)
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 25 $152 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 25 $44 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 24 $170 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 24 $168 $0 -0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 24 $141 −$3 -2%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $155 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $299 −$3 -1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 21 $397 −$2 -0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 21 $11 +$1 +5%
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 20 $142 +$2 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 19 $848 −$7 -1%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $150 +$6 +4%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $11 $0 +2%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $166 −$17 -10%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $151 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $166 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $38 +$14 +37%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 10 $152 −$10 -6%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $77 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $5 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $274 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 09 $152 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $8 −$4 -52%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $8 +$1 +13%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $146 +$1 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $156 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $373 −$6 -2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 05 $334 −$5 -2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $567 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 31 $233 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 28 $94 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $87 −$6 -6%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 19 $305 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 18 $15 +$6 +42%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 16 $11 $0 +3%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $170 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 14 $2 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $450 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $184 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 26 $35 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $253 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $131 $0 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 25 $184 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 24 $214 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $15 −$3 -20%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 24 $200 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 23 $48 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $171 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $171 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 97¢ $32 1h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 97¢ $48 1h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 97¢ $71 1h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 97¢ $152 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 29¢ $44 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 26h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 29¢ $43 26h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $88 28h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $49 28h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $31 32h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $107 32h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $7 43h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 45h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 45h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 45h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 51¢ $138 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 52¢ $59 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 52¢ $82 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $32 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $31 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $155 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $155 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $155 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $155 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $140 3d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 83¢ $144 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $22 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $55 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $82 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.55 · official $0.00 (match) · 522 history records